TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa37a…a9e7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
81
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 61 out of 100; worst Commodities at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3151.6%16 W · 15 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+65.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.92
Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+54.9%+$150.05
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.77
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$760Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$240
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,170Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+71%+$830.16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$498Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+588.7%+$2,929.42
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$263.19
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$52
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.13
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$247.65
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.45
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$444Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$1,262.96
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$167.55
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$370
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,196Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+61.1%+$731.44
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$288Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$288.1
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,563Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+92.5%+$1,445.57
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$490Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$510
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,640Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,640
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+1,566.7%+$477.52
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+87%+$92.55
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.9
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.01
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$440
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.72
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$781Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+61.6%+$480.56
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$712Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+229.5%+$1,635.17
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$610Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$390
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$2,030Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,029.84
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$488Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$487.83
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,019Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+43.9%+$447.27
All 10 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.05
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$599Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$598.76
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$774Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+48.6%+$376.54
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$894Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$893.55
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$252Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$175.2
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$720Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$280
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+401.1%+$672.37
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$314.16
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,267Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,266.71
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 10 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT6100%6 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+161.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+68%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.12
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.11
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+911.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+911.2%+$93.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$816Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$784
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$926Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$925.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$377.03
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.