Middle East · resolved market
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9238690bc7157a8a6788205fb13690ad8bcd9ec598ff7f79cbc04f7ad6d9c828
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $217,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $222,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 10c | 18,062$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.93 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 66c | 7,279$4,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,446.4 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed No | 74c | 5,732$4,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,498 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…ac0bbacked No | 9c | 5,300$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,837 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +182.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 12c | 4,631$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.23 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed No | 13c | 3,114$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,709.31 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 73c | 2,478$1,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.71 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed No | 52c | 2,200$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 18c | 2,066$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.75 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 65c | 2,012$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.15 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a5…5d5fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,926$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,831$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.03 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed No | 9c | 1,815$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,644.51 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 62c | 1,807$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.63 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 44c | 1,700$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.97 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 28c | 1,627$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.28 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1d…0171backed Yes | 1c | 1,461$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,289$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 41c | 1,217$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.9 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed Yes | 33c | 1,038$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,035$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 5c | 1,010$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.04 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…52f9backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 10c | 999.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.88 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…9a72backed No | 7c | 991.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.9 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00b…5c3cbacked No | 6c | 965.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +485%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked No | 29c | 895.24$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.58 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 41c | 885.35$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.68 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 8c | 865.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 60c | 823.68$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.79 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 65c | 799.98$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.99 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked Yes | 6c | 761.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 69c | 747.48$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.54 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Yes | 35c | 720.73$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 18c | 670.81$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.13 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 57c | 662.43$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.58 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 12c | 657.44$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 6c | 632.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.7 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 24c | 628.88$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.55 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked No | 9c | 587.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.5 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 8c | 579$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 24c | 567.17$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.94 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 22c | 564.6$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.65 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…8db2backed Yes | 18c | 564.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 9c | 517.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked Yes | 10c | 500.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ad…8b49backed Yes | 15c | 472.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 4c | 471.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.26 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4550…2398backed Yes | 33c | 468.9$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 439.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked No | 53c | 437.25$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.35 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 400$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 5c | 400$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 56c | 398.11$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.16 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 7c | 388.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…17c7backed Yes | 32c | 365.32$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 69c | 349.99$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…3428backed No | 71c | 340$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 47c | 336.29$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.49 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 67c | 322.53$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.32 | 159 | 43.4%69 W · 90 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Yes | 70c | 320.44$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…d127backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +412.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 300$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.75 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5835…9404backed No | 68c | 293.44$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…a6a2backed No | 69c | 291.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 34c | 289.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed No | 40c | 286.03$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.42 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd095…eb1ebacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed No | 44c | 282.83$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.36 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…3778backed No | 5c | 250$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +900%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…a9e7backed Yes | 16c | 250$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…9a45backed No | 39c | 243.82$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.73 | 81 | 35.8%29 W · 52 L | +13.6wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5efe…6322backed No | 10c | 238.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.41per pick | 16cpaid | +238.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 8c | 236.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.01 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Yes | 23c | 235.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…051ebacked Yes | 15c | 230$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed No | 71c | 229.86$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 14c | 225.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.71 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 218.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3be…582bbacked Yes | 27c | 212$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa619…1103backed No | 75c | 203.96$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108b…244dbacked Yes | 26c | 200.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed Yes | 33c | 189.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked No | 57c | 181$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.32 | 114 | 32.5%37 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 14c | 168.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed No | 63c | 162.43$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33be…adc8backed Yes | 34c | 160$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 66c | 137.87$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked No | 79c | 129.93$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb92a…f51cbacked No | 76c | 126.94$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…30b9backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 24c | 121.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 23c | 117$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?this page
- Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.