Middle East · resolved market
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dbde7f27335097e1abd3ecdf273835d6641e7f5eec82decb561cddab5313701
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 11c | 2,595$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.08 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 1,041$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 15c | 695.9$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.37 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 5c | 630.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…c3e4backed Yes | 9c | 253.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd35e…30a3backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 16c | 235$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 18c | 175$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 74c | 153.03$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 17c | 125$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…cf2dbacked Yes | 10c | 107$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed Yes | 23c | 106.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 76c | 78.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 38c | 76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 186 | 40.9%76 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 18c | 60.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?this page
- Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.