Middle East · resolved market
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42262c2c4226f762eeee2b435dade8407772d2a7548436390f81f7f9ed48ccf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $195,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $187,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 7c | 26,912$1,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,804.87 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 14c | 3,303$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.39 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,900$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,565$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.87 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 11c | 2,518$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.59 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…5943backed Yes | 3c | 2,089$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 10c | 2,072$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.22 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed Yes | 6c | 2,006$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 2c | 1,901$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed Yes | 21c | 1,897$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.37 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,805$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…bdf8backed Yes | 7c | 1,700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,623$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,557$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,546$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 10c | 1,362$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.2 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…7bccbacked Yes | 3c | 1,282$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 19cpaid | +233.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,277$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.23 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…abe1backed Yes | 14c | 1,095$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 1,027$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 3c | 999.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 975$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 27c | 920.18$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.95 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 78c | 918.7$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.7 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 6c | 846.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 11c | 837.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.73 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 802.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed Yes | 14c | 754.6$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.64 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab1…5d8abacked Yes | 7c | 694.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 9c | 632$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…ae75backed Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 600$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 6c | 599.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 3c | 550$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84fb…b6a3backed Yes | 15c | 550$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 544$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…6604backed Yes | 14c | 506.21$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 9c | 503.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 8c | 500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +10.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf847…ee6abacked Yes | 11c | 383.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed Yes | 7c | 371.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed Yes | 5c | 350$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4907…9202backed Yes | 14c | 336.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…ff5dbacked Yes | 14c | 323.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5255…6e58backed No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 14c | 299.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed Yes | 13c | 255.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 6c | 254.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 251.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f4…a7c9backed No | 70c | 250$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 7c | 249.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 15c | 244.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 9c | 231.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 6c | 231.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb7…20d4backed Yes | 12c | 215.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c1…28f3backed Yes | 20c | 209.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 7c | 204.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 37c | 200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c2…93d0backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…0121backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…4347backed Yes | 14c | 194.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…2f43backed No | 64c | 188.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d02…bb89backed Yes | 10c | 174.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 9c | 166.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507b…0742backed No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…4991backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f5…72bcbacked Yes | 20c | 138.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…c150backed Yes | 15c | 132$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 21c | 126.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 125.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…ecc7backed Yes | 15c | 115.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 24c | 104.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed Yes | 29c | 104.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21eb…a9fdbacked No | 73c | 102.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 80c | 102.56$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed Yes | 22c | 101.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…057fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 68c | 94$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33be…adc8backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b9…b193backed No | 76c | 89.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed Yes | 13c | 85.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4c…d6a2backed No | 78c | 82.82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…fc8abacked Yes | 12c | 82.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 77c | 82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 78.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1d36…e0d7backed Yes | 14c | 75.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…f88ebacked Yes | 21c | 73.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked Yes | 28c | 73.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 80c | 71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec7…ab82backed Yes | 22c | 67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?this page
- Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.