Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf400891222eb9cd2ce99e4d212a9f54d87a52a7b8c1d5d3b880d8185cd56687f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7d3…33bcbacked No | 7c | 10,744$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.26 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…4e83backed No | 26c | 6,560$1,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,692.37 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 5,625$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 63c | 5,404$3,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,006.99 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 2c | 5,294$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 39c | 3,423$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,085.36 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 66c | 2,904$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.52 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed No | 49c | 2,760$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 47c | 2,754$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.3 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 41c | 2,700$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.37 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed No | 10c | 2,576$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.79 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 15c | 2,520$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.24 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 54c | 2,425$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.37 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 48c | 2,157$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.98 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 56c | 2,000$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.05 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 36c | 1,870$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.07 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 7c | 1,690$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.2 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 49c | 1,535$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.82 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed Yes | 46c | 1,500$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.08 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 1,300$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.74 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 22c | 1,280$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.8 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +14.7wins | +0.30per pick | 19cpaid | +257.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 78c | 1,246$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.69 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 70c | 1,163$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.78 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…73a5backed No | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 40c | 1,083$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.12 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 33c | 1,061$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.48 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed No | 66c | 939$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.74 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 68c | 863.51$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.05 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 65c | 816.64$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 22c | 800$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 50c | 709.11$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.64 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 30c | 525$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe15e…d4f8backed Yes | 55c | 500$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 60c | 485.36$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.51 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 22c | 480$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 29c | 465.34$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.34 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 68c | 449.3$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.38 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x923b…e08abacked No | 56c | 411.93$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.17 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -5.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 403.09$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.32 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 51c | 400$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.9 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 32c | 399.98$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…775dbacked No | 66c | 379.99$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x503c…4574backed Yes | 29c | 376.68$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.68 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked Yes | 23c | 312.82$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.26 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90f4…83a7backed Yes | 52c | 292.11$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d76…044ebacked Yes | 52c | 282.69$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 279.33$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.43 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 271.88$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.25 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 52c | 262.37$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.56 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…f1ccbacked Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 237.32$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.19 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed No | 9c | 221.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed No | 65c | 219.57$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.11 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked No | 26c | 217.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…2f43backed No | 59c | 204.24$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 61c | 203$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.83 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…6e31backed Yes | 43c | 202.04$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +187.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb56…c1bcbacked No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…3651backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed No | 66c | 188.26$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.98 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +307.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 55c | 186.65$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.69 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27da…d24abacked No | 58c | 185.84$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked No | 53c | 180.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.92 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…5704backed Yes | 43c | 180$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f5…72bcbacked Yes | 43c | 179.23$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.1 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6571…60b7backed No | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 46c | 165.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.31 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 74c | 164.81$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…04f2backed Yes | 32c | 157.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +213%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed No | 53c | 156.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.74 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…b856backed No | 65c | 155.84$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80b…b047backed Yes | 45c | 151.15$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec11…fa19backed Yes | 33c | 149.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08eb…9ca4backed Yes | 63c | 142.86$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2ffebacked Yes | 55c | 140.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 64c | 140$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…7d80backed Yes | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21eb…a9fdbacked Yes | 29c | 130.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 70c | 129.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.33 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 58c | 129.28$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…5f55backed No | 56c | 126$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 120.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 74c | 120$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x05f4…66f6backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…1210backed No | 60c | 116.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked No | 62c | 116$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 43c | 114.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…b6b6backed Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +223.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 23c | 104$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf824…e3eabacked Yes | 37c | 102.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19c3…af1dbacked Yes | 50c | 102.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 53c | 101.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…a55fbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa38…2335backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?this page
- Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.