Middle East · resolved market
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3317da646f20b7f759245cce958672ec6cd89f48487217bff82e634058d13b35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 1c | 10,020$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…5fbcbacked No | 1c | 9,254$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 53c | 4,661$2,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,173.72 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed No | 8c | 4,583$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.03 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 49c | 4,065$1,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.2 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d3…33bcbacked No | 1c | 3,994$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 14c | 3,835$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.46 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 2,805$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 1c | 2,719$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 67c | 2,349$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.53 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,173$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 48c | 1,730$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.15 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…7367backed No | 1c | 1,502$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 13c | 1,200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 46c | 1,130$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…d449backed No | 32c | 1,105$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.65 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 48c | 1,099$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.56 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 37c | 1,086$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.78 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 58c | 1,075$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.09 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…a39dbacked No | 18c | 1,050$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 68c | 1,027$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.76 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 22c | 955.5$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.78 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 65c | 880.66$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.67 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 29c | 702.45$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.77 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed Yes | 44c | 598.26$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed No | 17c | 512.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 67c | 453.61$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.78 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 49c | 426$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.9 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 58c | 423.51$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.93 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 17c | 361.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 358.27$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.39 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 62c | 346.64$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.75 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80b…b047backed Yes | 36c | 330.93$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Yes | 77c | 322.66$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…f1ccbacked No | 51c | 285.81$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 60c | 268.41$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.52 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 75c | 265.22$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 74c | 261.54$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.56 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…7a70backed Yes | 47c | 260$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 64c | 246$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.47 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 60c | 232.85$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.91 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 51c | 223.85$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.79 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e58…4943backed No | 35c | 209.89$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…fcffbacked No | 23c | 204.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…ea35backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5c…c2e0backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 199.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 48c | 191.43$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 187.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…3b45backed No | 27c | 164$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af1…6b27backed No | 18c | 164$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 18c | 162$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a3…032ebacked Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 25c | 157.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed No | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3bb1backed Yes | 80c | 147.18$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 22c | 143.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…c88bbacked No | 25c | 137$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed No | 36c | 132.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed Yes | 50c | 132.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +12.6wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…efffbacked No | 13c | 129.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5979…7fbdbacked Yes | 69c | 129$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4c…d6a2backed No | 15c | 121.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e65…9d5fbacked Yes | 48c | 114.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked No | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 56c | 104.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 44c | 102$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…ee64backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…b127backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…809ebacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21a6…c753backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…4956backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked No | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…65c9backed Yes | 77c | 99.92$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0f…633ebacked Yes | 48c | 99.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked Yes | 66c | 98.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…1952backed Yes | 77c | 94.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 88.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…ffebbacked No | 13c | 88.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed Yes | 58c | 85.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…6476backed Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 76c | 77.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59e…73cabacked No | 51c | 71.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a9…07f1backed No | 17c | 70.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 52c | 70.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…f76ebacked Yes | 56c | 67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea30…f2a9backed Yes | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.1wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x05f4…66f6backed Yes | 61c | 63.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 19c | 63.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4023…77c1backed No | 40c | 62.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x503c…4574backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…4ca5backed No | 23c | 60.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 60.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?this page
- Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.