Middle East · resolved market

Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x654ecf1f582c46cd3d1df3bf0e62b20cfe958244bdbc8446c46683f07df6040a

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $162,194
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $120,553

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,194 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	5c	20,259$960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$960.22	421	20.9%88 W · 333 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9078…83c7backed Yes	2c	15,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	+235.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes	0c	12,107$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.02	183	38.3%70 W · 113 L	+14.5wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	2c	8,995$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.51	221	7.2%16 W · 205 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4214…6c68backed Yes	12c	5,674$705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$705.44	68	32.4%22 W · 46 L	+5.2wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+60.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	4,175$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.15	507	1.4%7 W · 500 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes	6c	4,168$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.05	86	26.7%23 W · 63 L	+8.7wins	+0.10per pick	17cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	1c	3,138$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	476	9.9%47 W · 429 L	+15.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+75.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed11…10bebacked Yes	4c	3,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	11c	2,044$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.36	171	29.2%50 W · 121 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No	79c	1,897$1,505 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$392.47	296	53.7%159 W · 137 L	+20.2wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+104.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	1c	1,710$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.39	428	18.7%80 W · 348 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	1c	1,703$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	53	32.1%17 W · 36 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes	6c	1,702$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.39	124	32.3%40 W · 84 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes	17c	1,519$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.57	55	23.6%13 W · 42 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes	7c	1,215$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.32	98	27.6%27 W · 71 L	-7.7wins	-0.08per pick	35cpaid	-46%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes	13c	1,178$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	253	39.5%100 W · 153 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40c5…5cbabacked Yes	9c	1,097$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.5	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	358	8.7%31 W · 327 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+99.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes	5c	923.44$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.18	103	9.7%10 W · 93 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0543…8d20backed Yes	9c	800$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	26cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f36…89cabacked Yes	8c	800$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.37	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	+8.4wins	+0.15per pick	27cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed Yes	12c	789.24$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.6	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes	3c	749.62$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.99	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c4a…bdf8backed Yes	13c	700$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8919…d64ebacked Yes	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2ca9…40c5backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1834…051ebacked Yes	5c	474.82$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.74	112	31.3%35 W · 77 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	+86.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	468.95$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.22	462	5%23 W · 439 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a83…7e38backed Yes	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+293.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	14c	392.59$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.43	114	36%41 W · 73 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5011…220ebacked Yes	7c	388$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.16	109	28.4%31 W · 78 L	-15.2wins	-0.14per pick	42cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	19c	376.78$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.28	64	9.4%6 W · 58 L	-4.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes	3c	350$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.16	366	26.8%98 W · 268 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf707…e8cebacked Yes	17c	300$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d00…0121backed Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	35cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	16c	290.78$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.04	288	27.8%80 W · 208 L	-10.4wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ad6…5e1cbacked Yes	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	59	50.8%30 W · 29 L	+9.0wins	+0.15per pick	36cpaid	+39.2%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7129…3958backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	89	33.7%30 W · 59 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+47.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x740d…2362backed Yes	39c	200$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.5	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbad…9e4bbacked Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	9c	200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	419	5.3%22 W · 397 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	247	12.1%30 W · 217 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x369c…eab1backed Yes	30c	179.37$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.11	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-8.3wins	-0.14per pick	43cpaid	-34%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x82fd…4533backed Yes	15c	166.58$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.56	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	18c	151.49$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.78	153	47.1%72 W · 81 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a34…56cfbacked Yes	41c	150$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	+64.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	7c	150$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	197	6.6%13 W · 184 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	10c	117.17$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.72	342	34.8%119 W · 223 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc902…3cd9backed Yes	15c	113.93$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.17	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.15per pick	25cpaid	+148.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf225…cc69backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes	19c	60$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cca…e8f7backed Yes	52c	51$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.52	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed Yes	35c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	66	31.8%21 W · 45 L	-7.1wins	-0.11per pick	43cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x817f…bf28backed No	62c	50$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	25c	49.26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	857	25.2%216 W · 641 L	-115.1wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes	34c	47.03$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.17	123	25.2%31 W · 92 L	+15.2wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf0f5…72bcbacked Yes	34c	45$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No	79c	42.98$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.98	247	59.1%146 W · 101 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No	75c	25$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.21	149	45%67 W · 82 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No	63c	17.4$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.49	65	55.4%36 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?this page
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event