Middle East · resolved market
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60be3b306991820cf1e91a966519c15040f1121d1d2aca575a099fb7df4a19b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb1…ecdbbacked Yes | 13c | 5,220$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,519.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb35a…c452backed No | 2c | 4,016$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 22c | 3,273$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,540.39 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 20c | 2,750$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.66 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 69c | 2,081$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.24 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked No | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 30c | 1,365$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.01 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,359$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked No | 75c | 1,319$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.8 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83f1…1936backed Yes | 19c | 1,254$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 33c | 1,066$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.49 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…2de9backed Yes | 77c | 986.13$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.3 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 36c | 977.97$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.97 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 40c | 899.74$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.38 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 74c | 766.95$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 32c | 713.99$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.06 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed No | 4c | 705.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…4a4bbacked No | 4c | 705.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 20c | 698.02$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.38 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed No | 13c | 609.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b08…b0eebacked Yes | 16c | 521.89$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 34c | 488.38$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.74 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 17c | 466.74$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.06 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 18c | 459.53$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.63 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 70c | 441.91$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.27 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 19c | 430.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.67 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 24c | 422.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.22 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…e585backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 4c | 375.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 358.97$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.92 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff8…5fd6backed No | 66c | 348.24$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.84 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 21cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1308…45c6backed No | 60c | 315.52$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.31 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 41cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 16c | 310.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.19 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 47c | 309.24$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.51 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…01f5backed No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…3b45backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 69c | 279.56$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…7367backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.16 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…6e31backed No | 76c | 250$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +187.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3bb1backed No | 7c | 228.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4c…d6a2backed No | 18c | 222.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 217.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…f1ccbacked No | 80c | 215$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked Yes | 11c | 205$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.89 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d01…9725backed Yes | 20c | 177.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.89 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…2f43backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 29c | 159.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.78 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…69debacked Yes | 27c | 134.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.63 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 25c | 119.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 17c | 117.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.61 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 20c | 117.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.14 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…ee4fbacked Yes | 20c | 115$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 13c | 107$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.09 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 31c | 102.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 102$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e58…4943backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…cb90backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f5…72bcbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 68c | 91.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdb…8a82backed Yes | 58c | 85.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…cc69backed Yes | 48c | 80.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 79.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x73c1…28f3backed Yes | 28c | 78.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked Yes | 43c | 75.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 74c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked No | 62c | 68.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 49c | 67.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed Yes | 30c | 63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 56c | 51.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed Yes | 40c | 50.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…4ca5backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…96dabacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +112%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…f76ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…83fcbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…1a2cbacked No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…dcc6backed Yes | 30c | 42.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 41.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 41.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9446…2ebbbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 39.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed Yes | 33c | 36.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5896…447cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c5…91d7backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 63c | 19.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23dc…ad23backed No | 75c | 13.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?this page
- Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.