TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6a96…69de

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
93
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 60 out of 100; worst Commodities at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3647.2%17 W · 19 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick32cpaid+42.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+158.9%+$109.64
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+198.3%+$99.15
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$117.49
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+274%+$98.63
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+203%+$203.03
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+226.6%+$413.3
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+548%+$273.98
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$97
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$177
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+169.4%+$399.77
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+212.7%+$163.21
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$141.95
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$106.33
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$77
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+143.5%+$177.9
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$225
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$83.27
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$202
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT3345.5%15 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+31.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+227.4%+$113.71
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+121.7%+$60.13
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+148.5%+$121.78
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+300%+$50.88
Will James Rodríguez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$75.83
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$78
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will Joško Gvardiol score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will Frenkie de Jong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+157.1%+$61.26
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$106.25
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$69
Will IR Iran (20) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.53
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+69.9%+$116.9
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Lionel Messi score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+99.5%+$88.55
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+145.6%+$72.81
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick35cpaid-84.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Commodities — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.16
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$161
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$187
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$244
Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.06
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$255
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+72.8%+$145.68
All 11 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+155.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+116.1%+$80.09
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$97.06
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FK Vardar Skopje win on 2026-07-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$104
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$155
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.