Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57685b047d1d71312d1e854863daa04eae3975ed221009360657556ed7bba976

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $10,357
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,263

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,357 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes	51c	1,545$783 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$782.79	201	42.8%86 W · 115 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No	52c	1,479$768 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$710.7	139	57.6%80 W · 59 L	+18.4wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	12c	706.55$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.64	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x78ae…143abacked Yes	45c	601.44$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.9	116	32.8%38 W · 78 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf998…13f5backed No	57c	581.28$331 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.95	274	54%148 W · 126 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeed…074bbacked No	54c	406$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.64	44	38.6%17 W · 27 L	-4.2wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d5b…7744backed No	78c	383.95$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.95	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd399…3f46backed Yes	48c	338.11$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.6	97	23.7%23 W · 74 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…66a5backed Yes	51c	332.47$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.56	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa76b…c054backed No	48c	253.15$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.64	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No	65c	250$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.5	55	61.8%34 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed No	50c	240$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	208	41.3%86 W · 122 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	47c	236$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	97	52.6%51 W · 46 L	+9.0wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes	43c	200$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	249	54.2%135 W · 114 L	+40.3wins	+0.16per pick	38cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0x5254…891bbacked No	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a96…69debacked Yes	44c	147.73$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	+3.8wins	+0.12per pick	34cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No	49c	142.88$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.87	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes	49c	116$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.84	260	37.3%97 W · 163 L	-6.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	9c	113.62$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	167	4.2%7 W · 160 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a93…3113backed Yes	42c	112.95$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05ae…5a4bbacked Yes	29c	103.45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	360	24.4%88 W · 272 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	26c	103.18$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.98	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed Yes	50c	100.3$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.15	617	52%321 W · 296 L	-13.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes	35c	100$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1694…8badbacked Yes	32c	98.05$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.38	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes	32c	96$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.88	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes	43c	70$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.4	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	-6.8wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x569b…c66ebacked Yes	43c	58.14$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	144	22.2%32 W · 112 L	-10.5wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb27f…2c41backed Yes	51c	56.57$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.85	114	45.6%52 W · 62 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5a51…05adbacked Yes	46c	55.67$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.61	63	65.1%41 W · 22 L	+6.9wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+18%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No	49c	55$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.05	147	39.5%58 W · 89 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	43c	51.9$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.49	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes	51c	50.42$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.71	199	58.3%116 W · 83 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	44c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac7a…414fbacked No	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+2.5wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc165…61a9backed Yes	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	83	48.2%40 W · 43 L	-5.8wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-10%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0855…ae26backed Yes	32c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-3.4wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cea…ffd2backed Yes	49c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.3	84	51.2%43 W · 41 L	-8.8wins	-0.10per pick	62cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f0e…d3b2backed Yes	45c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	56	57.1%32 W · 24 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbac…87c5backed No	47c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfec1…b807backed Yes	35c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes	35c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	112	41.1%46 W · 66 L	-6.7wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed No	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x676f…c546backed No	63c	50$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.5	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.6wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+70.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	44c	48.54$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.36	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x624b…56f8backed Yes	25c	42.1$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.55	51	25.5%13 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	30c	40$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c26…1694backed Yes	51c	35.29$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e83…d461backed Yes	39c	31.87$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.45	62	46.8%29 W · 33 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa34a…71bbbacked No	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+2.4wins	+0.20per pick	47cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes	51c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1332…01b0backed No	50c	23.9$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.95	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.61per pick	39cpaid	+182.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae5b…ab1bbacked No	50c	20.3$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.15	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.19per pick	19cpaid	+60.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1e3…b6d0backed Yes	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	64	26.6%17 W · 47 L	-12.2wins	-0.19per pick	46cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x89cf…8ad2backed No	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	+3.9wins	+0.11per pick	32cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event