Champions League · resolved market
Will FK Vardar Skopje win on 2026-07-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88ce61e48039fcdcbf76e9a8262d6e76f7aabe11ca4abd86da5d125c9fbd7388
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Yes | 43c | 46,153$20,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,009.66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 57c | 16,807$9,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,306.28 | 1,487 | 40.3%599 W · 888 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 58c | 10,738$6,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,544.87 | 426 | 47.9%204 W · 222 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 57c | 4,192$2,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.39 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 58c | 3,205$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.21 | 881 | 37.7%332 W · 549 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 56c | 3,095$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.73 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…f760backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Yes | 43c | 1,996$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…7d29backed No | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.39 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 68c | 1,666$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.49 | 704 | 35.8%252 W · 452 L | -27.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 55c | 1,603$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.12 | 313 | 42.5%133 W · 180 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 56c | 971.43$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.94 | 415 | 53%220 W · 195 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 55c | 733.97$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.98 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 58c | 700.95$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.96 | 358 | 60.6%217 W · 141 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…13b5backed Yes | 43c | 599.99$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed No | 56c | 585$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.4 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 57c | 564.55$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.76 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…c0fabacked No | 54c | 502.87$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.32 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 57c | 453.22$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.19 | 606 | 48.3%293 W · 313 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 57c | 442.15$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.21 | 402 | 50.7%204 W · 198 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 62c | 438.6$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.02 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 57c | 438$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.34 | 489 | 47.6%233 W · 256 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 224 | 52.2%117 W · 107 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…1525backed No | 59c | 312$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.25 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 60c | 293.8$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b5…381cbacked Yes | 45c | 284.59$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 55c | 282.87$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.92 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 56c | 278.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.37 | 631 | 50.2%317 W · 314 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Yes | 32c | 267.16$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.47 | 142 | 38%54 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Yes | 13c | 237.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…69debacked Yes | 46c | 189.13$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 48c | 183.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked No | 55c | 175.42$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked No | 53c | 169.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 69c | 168.98$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed No | 57c | 143$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 55c | 109.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 95.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 94.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 875 | 31.1%272 W · 603 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 58c | 72.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 298 | 58.4%174 W · 124 L | +17.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…9488backed Yes | 46c | 68.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1f…b12cbacked No | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 66.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Yes | 44c | 56.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed No | 57c | 55.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf22…8c56backed No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…fd82backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…31c4backed No | 57c | 49.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…a670backed No | 61c | 48.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 68c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 994 | 35%348 W · 646 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Yes | 41c | 43.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 210 | 43.8%92 W · 118 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed No | 55c | 39.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked No | 57c | 36.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 42c | 35.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Yes | 37c | 27.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0550…c7efbacked No | 63c | 25.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked No | 56c | 21.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…2015backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…64fdbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 18.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Vardar Skopje win on 2026-07-07?this page
- Will FK Vardar Skopje vs. Kuopion PS end in a draw?No won
- Will Kuopion PS win on 2026-07-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.