Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92485347d2c139beb425df7bee78b98805d0eab1eb0cc953cf000e9a287eab7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,062,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $956,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,062,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 305 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d4b…07cbbacked No | 3c | 70,690$2,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,549.5 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 69c | 36,200$25,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,158.61 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 0c | 26,108$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…074ebacked No | 10c | 25,809$2,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,314.31 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +9.4wins | +0.39per pick | 15cpaid | +308.2%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x68aa…ea5ebacked Yes | 28c | 24,353$6,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,750.12 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 20c | 23,297$4,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,767.99 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 23,100$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.58 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb27a…2b17backed No | 9c | 22,023$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,023.01 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +4.2wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +597%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 3c | 21,036$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.55 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 3c | 20,000$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.57 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked No | 10c | 19,228$1,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,268.66 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Yes | 19c | 17,379$3,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,368.71 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 14c | 14,484$1,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,514.31 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 14c | 12,997$1,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,239.16 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed No | 15c | 12,988$2,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,983.14 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 4c | 12,855$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.11 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 12c | 9,000$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,922.3 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed No | 41c | 8,952$3,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,318.14 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 2c | 8,703$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.66 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +196.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 4c | 8,005$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,724.83 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 70c | 7,922$5,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,561.27 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92ff…55d0backed Yes | 3c | 7,446$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…1d08backed No | 1c | 7,055$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,984.85 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +795.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…a98fbacked No | 3c | 6,668$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,467.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +1,480.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 4c | 6,513$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,247.19 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…f672backed No | 8c | 6,408$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,864.78 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed No | 2c | 6,224$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,126.39 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…4a21backed Yes | 3c | 6,171$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.86 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 21c | 5,660$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,461.98 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 14c | 5,657$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,853.18 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed No | 9c | 5,486$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,006.05 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 1c | 5,116$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,950 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…5980backed No | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,499.98 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc65b…8d2dbacked No | 2c | 4,908$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,808.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,833.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91dd…2730backed No | 2c | 4,800$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,699.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +796.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 7c | 4,630$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,291.6 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 54c | 4,503$2,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,417.88 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed No | 2c | 4,306$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,216.42 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 67c | 4,272$2,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,854.23 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 25c | 4,233$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,184.55 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x088d…82f9backed Yes | 45c | 4,131$1,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866.92 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked Yes | 22c | 3,835$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.63 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 3,626$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed No | 4c | 3,614$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,469.12 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 15c | 3,498$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,958.11 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc53b…7049backed No | 29c | 3,439$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,438.89 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd086…f57bbacked No | 2c | 3,402$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,332.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +1,013.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x955b…067ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,180$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed No | 9c | 3,056$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,786.61 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850.32 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…9ab0backed Yes | 3c | 2,950$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2542…1da4backed No | 17c | 2,873$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,372.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +1,251.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ba…145bbacked No | 8c | 2,684$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,479.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 13cpaid | +224%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1dab…840bbacked No | 13c | 2,567$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,234.22 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x586c…1debbacked Yes | 1c | 2,562$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…977cbacked No | 24c | 2,561$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,935.08 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +6.4wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked No | 7c | 2,537$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,367.94 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +212.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 39c | 2,472$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.84 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 57c | 2,427$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.86 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed No | 13c | 2,424$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,121.01 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +162.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…6f9cbacked No | 7c | 2,417$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,257.39 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…2d87backed No | 9c | 2,370$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168.54 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +259.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,330$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…bc25backed Yes | 3c | 2,314$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 1c | 2,234$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 6c | 2,222$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.77 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 79c | 2,200$1,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747.4 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Yes | 39c | 2,180$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.4 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bd…94ddbacked No | 2c | 2,157$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,118.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +4,060.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a4…d8cdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,099$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 78c | 1,989$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…3683backed No | 3c | 1,962$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894.92 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +656.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…3cf5backed No | 3c | 1,884$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,834.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +630.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked No | 24c | 1,806$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.56 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes | 76c | 1,787$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.82 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b08…497ebacked No | 11c | 1,775$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.81 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…4668backed Yes | 3c | 1,727$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +192.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…2c4cbacked No | 17c | 1,621$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.28 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe95d…21d9backed Yes | 3c | 1,555$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca88…7caabacked Yes | 4c | 1,500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 79c | 1,486$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.51 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked No | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.16 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x334a…43e6backed No | 4c | 1,389$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,677.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 3c | 1,378$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 7c | 1,339$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.65 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…3d56backed No | 11c | 1,316$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.05 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +244.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 38c | 1,298$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.98 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 45c | 1,268$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.95 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 15c | 1,250$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,200$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.72 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 32c | 1,195$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.26 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb8…a9c0backed No | 35c | 1,131$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +182.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 5c | 1,092$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.99 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 1,070$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.16 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…25e8backed Yes | 4c | 1,055$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -81%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…7ca1backed Yes | 2c | 1,053$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed No | 2c | 1,050$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +765.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x405d…025ebacked No | 24c | 1,042$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.67 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,001$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?this page
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.