Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x276a14b8bc1bc374bebd16407761d530528a05097d2bc53524ba21d38842d5f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $507,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $645,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $507,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97cb…c910backed No | 4c | 20,119$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.08 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked No | 3c | 18,693$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.68 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7109…9308backed No | 3c | 15,290$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +160.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…c480backed No | 4c | 10,259$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.04 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa87a…3608backed No | 0c | 10,116$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…102bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed No | 3c | 8,244$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.48 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 1c | 8,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9064…dc94backed No | 3c | 7,860$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8794…fa1bbacked No | 0c | 7,085$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 6,820$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 0c | 6,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3a…1a65backed No | 3c | 6,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…b2e7backed No | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed No | 3c | 3,901$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.48 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…14d6backed No | 3c | 3,879$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed No | 4c | 3,843$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.34 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed No | 1c | 3,455$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 2c | 3,326$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b66…3a93backed No | 3c | 3,000$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +251.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…df6fbacked No | 4c | 2,952$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcae5…6e29backed No | 1c | 2,800$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +197.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 4c | 2,800$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 3c | 2,353$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef4…0ccebacked No | 2c | 2,251$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…f569backed No | 1c | 2,228$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 3c | 1,736$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…9ff1backed No | 5c | 1,725$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 1c | 1,653$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x678d…aefbbacked No | 1c | 1,507$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c42…213bbacked No | 2c | 1,293$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed No | 1c | 1,184$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 2c | 1,152$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed No | 5c | 1,043$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 2c | 998.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 4c | 821.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 1c | 808.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6566…ea1ebacked No | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…a662backed No | 3c | 710.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…4b80backed No | 4c | 689.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd45b…1cddbacked No | 2c | 646.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b2…95ffbacked No | 2c | 620$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f4…0c8dbacked No | 3c | 608.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…d5bfbacked No | 3c | 599.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af0…e3c6backed No | 3c | 568.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…30ddbacked No | 3c | 550$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed No | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…2f7cbacked No | 4c | 480$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4096…7c34backed No | 4c | 466.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2674…c66bbacked No | 3c | 447.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 4c | 337$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…c722backed No | 4c | 294.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?this page
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.