Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x393fb0be5ca5832188657b34ad914c8f24a3ea6dfca233d1b996aba14399b48f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,343,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,578,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,343,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked No | 5c | 64,828$3,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,149.97 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…05fbbacked No | 7c | 55,798$3,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,985 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x333a…bd76backed No | 1c | 39,686$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +514.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7efe…acacbacked No | 1c | 24,138$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aff…d174backed No | 1c | 19,645$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b57…0b88backed No | 4c | 16,418$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 2c | 16,303$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.07 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 2c | 15,700$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.02 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…a98fbacked No | 14c | 13,982$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +1,480.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 3c | 13,402$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.03 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 13,393$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed No | 8c | 13,128$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.74 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7109…9308backed No | 8c | 13,093$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +160.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…809abacked No | 3c | 12,882$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…ace6backed No | 2c | 10,136$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe812…7c12backed No | 0c | 9,547$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26e…da8ebacked No | 3c | 9,517$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f6…7504backed No | 0c | 8,770$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 5c | 8,725$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.34 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed No | 2c | 8,435$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.84 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…9d64backed No | 7c | 8,419$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.31 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 6c | 8,398$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.06 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf06…4799backed No | 6c | 7,937$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 4c | 7,603$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.48 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb629…14dbbacked No | 5c | 7,404$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…c480backed No | 12c | 6,761$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00aa…6336backed No | 1c | 5,705$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked No | 2c | 5,147$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1766…de73backed No | 2c | 5,043$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6c…fc59backed No | 4c | 5,039$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1027…0951backed No | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 4c | 4,938$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.23 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 3c | 4,654$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.98 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked No | 1c | 4,565$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 2c | 4,500$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…109ebacked No | 2c | 4,449$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed No | 7c | 4,100$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 3,974$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…19a9backed No | 2c | 3,500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +590.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe853…6ab0backed No | 3c | 2,990$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…78abbacked No | 2c | 2,920$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb8…c3bbbacked No | 2c | 2,857$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae5…6e29backed No | 4c | 2,600$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +197.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef4…0ccebacked No | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…3e4cbacked No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x405d…025ebacked No | 3c | 2,492$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8427…9568backed No | 4c | 2,438$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +131.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 2c | 2,301$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2f…f3f6backed No | 2c | 2,288$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b30…882dbacked No | 3c | 2,233$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 13c | 2,222$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.86 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1f…8fbebacked No | 5c | 2,182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…f8babacked No | 2c | 2,180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +145.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x678d…aefbbacked No | 3c | 2,162$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 3c | 2,153$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed No | 2c | 2,100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63cc…eec5backed No | 2c | 2,072$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 3c | 2,072$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2475…c3e6backed No | 2c | 2,019$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…e9c2backed No | 8c | 1,875$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…a9edbacked No | 1c | 1,847$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +385.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 3c | 1,831$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a7…69fabacked No | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed No | 3c | 1,647$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…1da6backed No | 3c | 1,625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +556%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed No | 5c | 1,500$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x311f…74b6backed No | 2c | 1,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 30cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed No | 12c | 1,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed No | 3c | 1,401$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8794…fa1bbacked No | 2c | 1,365$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…4f6fbacked No | 3c | 1,330$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f31…7f8ebacked No | 13c | 1,225$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d8…762dbacked No | 6c | 1,200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.57 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb9…10cebacked No | 2c | 1,200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…680dbacked No | 3c | 1,150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8404…31cabacked No | 5c | 1,100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…3128backed No | 9c | 1,100$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…454fbacked No | 2c | 1,088$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1606…de00backed No | 5c | 1,030$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +8.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +54%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…14d6backed No | 2c | 1,020$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed No | 5c | 1,005$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd76a…79acbacked No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f80…fa5cbacked No | 3c | 999.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd93…7182backed No | 5c | 977.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…7ba1backed No | 2c | 952.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe95d…21d9backed No | 4c | 947.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…40e3backed No | 2c | 934.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…aa34backed No | 3c | 894.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked No | 3c | 882.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 12c | 879.35$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.99 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked No | 2c | 866$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…10cebacked No | 2c | 841.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 3c | 790.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc487…ab80backed No | 6c | 765.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 3c | 763.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…e97abacked No | 2c | 750$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1616…896cbacked No | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…4f69backed No | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…fc43backed No | 3c | 655.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?this page
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.