Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1eeb910620bfa52c348ca5b166c33230a0b142bec858d4fa46df18aeecbcecc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,224,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,152,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,224,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 367 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5297…7b99backed No | 0c | 174,443$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.02 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 9c | 84,702$7,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,504.43 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 10c | 82,042$8,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,576.24 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 3c | 76,977$2,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,314.65 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5b…26e2backed No | 6c | 74,455$4,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,170.64 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked No | 7c | 64,496$4,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,830.72 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed No | 7c | 62,016$4,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,155.97 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 4c | 54,561$2,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,146.11 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e4…732fbacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +67%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed No | 7c | 49,203$3,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,548.66 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 6c | 43,065$2,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,661.05 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 3c | 42,460$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.69 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked No | 7c | 40,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…566dbacked No | 3c | 35,611$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.87 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed No | 11c | 34,728$3,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,818.87 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3915…faffbacked No | 5c | 32,326$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 3c | 29,398$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.69 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 3c | 25,506$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.41 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd005…f2c5backed No | 3c | 25,024$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +493.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e84…5432backed No | 2c | 24,531$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked No | 2c | 23,800$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.76 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed No | 4c | 22,064$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 15c | 20,867$3,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,033.87 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f1…e4e7backed No | 2c | 20,350$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…4268backed No | 10c | 18,463$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.27 | 74 | 21.6%16 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fc…9fd4backed No | 3c | 18,142$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…5b3fbacked No | 5c | 18,121$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb1…3c7abacked No | 9c | 16,636$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd35f…2589backed No | 0c | 15,386$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 5c | 14,595$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.93 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dab…840bbacked No | 4c | 13,079$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…aac8backed No | 10c | 12,308$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.79 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +6.4wins | +0.38per pick | 27cpaid | +110%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 8c | 12,110$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.12 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 16c | 10,608$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,736.38 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 37c | 10,450$3,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,842.54 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…7d67backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x928f…52fdbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…1d08backed No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +795.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 7c | 10,000$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd6…60c2backed No | 4c | 10,000$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed No | 9c | 9,917$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.91 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 12c | 9,814$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.94 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…e630backed No | 2c | 8,889$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +312.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf94…4ae8backed No | 3c | 8,264$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1db…838dbacked No | 2c | 7,951$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426d…6669backed No | 5c | 7,472$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.58 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…a549backed No | 10c | 7,186$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed No | 7c | 7,143$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 7cpaid | +409.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcae5…6e29backed No | 2c | 6,440$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.8 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +197.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…951bbacked No | 4c | 6,300$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…9a8abacked No | 2c | 6,300$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.6 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 2cpaid | +428.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…f569backed No | 3c | 6,268$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 70c | 6,187$4,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,862.47 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 2c | 6,064$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.41 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed No | 4c | 5,688$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.75 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bd15backed No | 1c | 5,667$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +257%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed No | 3c | 5,320$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.42 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d3…2150backed No | 10c | 5,164$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +1,860.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 1c | 5,002$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked No | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadbc…81e8backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…3b67backed No | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 17c | 5,000$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.85 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked No | 7c | 4,857$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.01 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf500…7d09backed No | 14c | 4,847$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92c2…0e25backed No | 2c | 4,774$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…06c0backed No | 10c | 4,772$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.53 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe831…f1dbbacked No | 2c | 4,665$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…ed03backed No | 9c | 4,517$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef7…01f5backed No | 3c | 4,470$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe111…0473backed No | 4c | 4,160$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 2c | 4,082$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed No | 5c | 4,070$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…fd1abacked No | 0c | 4,010$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…de75backed No | 3c | 4,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b38…9d3fbacked No | 0c | 3,897$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…1fa9backed No | 12c | 3,800$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 4c | 3,688$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.54 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…a98fbacked No | 14c | 3,650$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +1,480.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8a…cb9fbacked No | 2c | 3,604$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +1,135.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked No | 14c | 3,600$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…10cebacked No | 5c | 3,598$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…7f1fbacked No | 4c | 3,582$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…5384backed No | 13c | 3,578$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d5…d1bbbacked No | 7c | 3,500$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.01 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +148%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No | 11c | 3,266$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.23 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 4c | 3,209$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.48 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 2c | 3,092$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5debbacked No | 4c | 3,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked No | 2c | 3,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked No | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…c640backed No | 8c | 2,890$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…074ebacked No | 2c | 2,875$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +9.4wins | +0.39per pick | 15cpaid | +308.2%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee8…6aaabacked No | 3c | 2,872$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked No | 9c | 2,800$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x333a…bd76backed No | 2c | 2,686$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +514.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6f…a13abacked No | 4c | 2,539$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed No | 5c | 2,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x009a…2b8ebacked No | 7c | 2,458$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?this page
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.