Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x656ee3fe28d2f23b12f3e5616161274a1456dc5e355fd97d3ad1d07c7c972f48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,241,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,138,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,241,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 564 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb27a…2b17backed No | 13c | 30,756$3,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,857.82 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +4.2wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +597%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 69c | 28,039$19,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,647.69 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 43c | 25,857$11,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,013.44 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…e559backed No | 21c | 24,010$4,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,075.07 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…074ebacked No | 11c | 23,828$2,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,293.28 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +9.4wins | +0.39per pick | 15cpaid | +308.2%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed Yes | 80c | 23,536$18,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,815.5 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed No | 16c | 20,329$3,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,975.17 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 20,100$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.2 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 20c | 20,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,000 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 12c | 20,000$2,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,514.84 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Yes | 8c | 18,533$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.13 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…23c5backed Yes | 1c | 15,021$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…809abacked No | 28c | 12,718$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,118.1 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 80c | 12,668$10,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,094.6 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744c…e37fbacked Yes | 76c | 12,348$9,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,354.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked No | 13c | 11,941$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,440.47 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 11,700$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.06 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 0c | 11,433$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…514cbacked No | 18c | 11,196$2,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,180.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 9c | 10,458$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,560.31 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…1d08backed No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,900 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +795.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9c…79fdbacked No | 10c | 9,779$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,779.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +878.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 71c | 8,694$6,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,559.11 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7264…8583backed No | 6c | 8,675$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,174.69 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 11cpaid | +115%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…c581backed No | 22c | 8,025$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,285.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 16cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 10c | 7,700$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,923.99 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68aa…ea5ebacked Yes | 3c | 7,623$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.65 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 78c | 7,615$5,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,963.63 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 65c | 7,517$4,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,895.34 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 0c | 7,444$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,856$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 65c | 6,838$4,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,451.4 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 46c | 6,663$3,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,097.34 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 5c | 6,488$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.99 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed No | 18c | 6,204$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,103.62 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed No | 32c | 5,850$1,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,976.04 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 8c | 5,800$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,356 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked No | 37c | 5,602$2,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,545.87 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 67c | 5,551$3,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,740.3 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,456$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4e…466dbacked No | 19c | 5,140$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,177.57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 35c | 5,132$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,348.63 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…362bbacked Yes | 67c | 5,034$3,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,386 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,950 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6eb…88a8backed No | 23c | 5,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,859.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked No | 14c | 4,853$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,153.27 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4310…cd60backed Yes | 56c | 4,682$2,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,616.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 12c | 4,664$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,104.28 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…a98fbacked No | 44c | 4,553$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,552.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +1,480.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc894…7cccbacked No | 23c | 4,513$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,475.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +178.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 19c | 4,251$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,443.84 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed52…9122backed No | 22c | 4,248$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,299.61 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked Yes | 77c | 4,048$3,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,125.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 2c | 3,980$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed No | 10c | 3,842$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,471.56 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…0a3ebacked No | 27c | 3,704$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,703.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.42per pick | 30cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…a21dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,547$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 12c | 3,500$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc00…0115backed No | 6c | 3,497$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,297.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +135%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 75c | 3,400$2,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,551.89 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed No | 10c | 3,355$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,019.62 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2466…c766backed No | 40c | 3,354$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,012.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…3479backed No | 27c | 3,334$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,433.81 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe853…6ab0backed No | 24c | 3,317$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,521.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 17c | 3,213$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,653.85 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 9c | 3,178$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,877.88 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…41a3backed Yes | 1c | 3,125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked No | 11c | 3,098$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,744.21 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…11e3backed Yes | 79c | 3,000$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,360 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 27c | 2,963$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…9a84backed No | 37c | 2,921$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 59c | 2,918$1,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,725.66 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 19c | 2,835$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,290.12 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes | 78c | 2,796$2,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,187 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 8c | 2,658$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,457.46 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…6522backed Yes | 4c | 2,647$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 3cpaid | +669.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 12c | 2,612$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,306 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc9…ac05backed No | 29c | 2,580$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,835.84 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 64c | 2,510$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 23c | 2,500$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…c4f3backed Yes | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.99 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -9.8wins | -0.32per pick | 67cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xcccf…3382backed Yes | 3c | 2,227$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 5c | 2,222$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.76 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…9ab0backed Yes | 3c | 2,190$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 53c | 2,189$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.4 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 75c | 2,101$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,583.52 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Yes | 64c | 2,037$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.12 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16eb…c7c7backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked Yes | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.99 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…c5adbacked No | 35c | 1,997$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.8 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +6.2wins | +0.34per pick | 44cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 1,995$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,736.71 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 37c | 1,910$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.61 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed No | 6c | 1,878$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,766.13 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 57c | 1,808$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.48 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…14f3backed No | 28c | 1,786$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,755$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked Yes | 78c | 1,729$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.06 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -11.4wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?this page
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.