Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7540d64e03b1894ececcbb54c02b88d9c5c0e854ba66ec4e1ece20477994ac5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,918,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,003,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,918,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,476 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6d8…9d21backed No | 1c | 2,280,656$14,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,239.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked No | 0c | 1,500,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked No | 0c | 1,091,683$1,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955.4 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 0c | 796,368$2,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,950.89 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1dab…840bbacked No | 0c | 770,651$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed No | 0c | 768,714$1,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904.53 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…c229backed No | 0c | 574,781$2,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,314.8 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 2c | 558,991$10,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,978.66 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed No | 0c | 550,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd53…25e7backed No | 0c | 509,000$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf8…4caabacked No | 0c | 337,069$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 2c | 332,896$7,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,194.29 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…809abacked No | 1c | 319,338$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 3c | 300,203$7,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,540.11 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc62a…2638backed No | 0c | 292,353$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…d9dabacked No | 0c | 290,795$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…f672backed No | 1c | 269,744$3,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,105 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed No | 12c | 259,686$31,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,112.94 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd049…5de7backed No | 3c | 252,650$6,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,905 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…977cbacked No | 1c | 235,547$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.42 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +6.4wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…9420backed No | 0c | 207,280$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…9ab0backed No | 2c | 206,166$3,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,481.7 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…8897backed No | 0c | 189,043$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 188,382$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.61 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 1c | 186,327$2,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,701.98 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 2c | 179,001$3,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,477.75 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51e6…8ae4backed No | 0c | 175,507$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf780…be2cbacked No | 0c | 173,736$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 4c | 172,711$6,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,128.08 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b74…4127backed No | 0c | 154,317$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 3c | 152,940$4,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,543.63 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x826e…2bebbacked No | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed No | 0c | 149,083$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 2c | 146,347$2,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,740.19 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…7c8cbacked No | 0c | 142,176$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb712…7069backed No | 0c | 140,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6e…d859backed No | 0c | 139,097$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4d…00e3backed No | 0c | 128,382$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 122,074$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.75 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…cedfbacked No | 0c | 120,442$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…7f49backed No | 1c | 119,435$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…1d08backed No | 0c | 117,629$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.21 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +795.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 2c | 115,000$2,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,720 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3c…110bbacked No | 0c | 112,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadbc…81e8backed No | 0c | 106,984$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed No | 0c | 105,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed No | 6c | 100,800$6,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,109.41 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x87ca…3448backed No | 15c | 100,728$14,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,947.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5a…b691backed No | 0c | 100,200$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed No | 1c | 100,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked No | 1c | 99,999$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.56 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 8c | 89,684$7,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,132.49 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…5577backed No | 0c | 89,500$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +221.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d81…5c1ebacked No | 0c | 83,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b7…2ddcbacked No | 0c | 83,088$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed No | 3c | 82,460$2,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.54 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 1c | 79,340$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.66 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 6c | 72,548$4,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,256.34 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 2c | 69,644$1,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,323.28 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked No | 1c | 69,036$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.9 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 2c | 68,388$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.57 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a9…ec88backed No | 0c | 67,880$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked No | 13c | 67,063$8,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,709.18 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed No | 1c | 65,578$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.89 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3915…faffbacked No | 13c | 65,082$8,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,404.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…fa7ebacked No | 0c | 62,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9a…ed29backed No | 1c | 61,901$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 3c | 59,395$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.21 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked No | 0c | 59,323$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…3959backed No | 0c | 54,712$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…d2f2backed No | 1c | 54,342$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.52 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 2c | 52,772$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.54 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 2c | 51,951$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.17 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…1fa9backed No | 3c | 50,000$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.14 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…72d7backed No | 0c | 50,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed No | 0c | 50,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +1,614.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb755…b009backed No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…2453backed No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…ec63backed No | 2c | 49,860$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +717%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 20c | 49,381$9,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,797.72 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 3c | 49,066$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.01 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…6158backed No | 0c | 47,605$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…e5adbacked No | 1c | 47,373$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd23…6ae0backed No | 0c | 47,028$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed No | 0c | 46,325$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ba…6eccbacked No | 1c | 45,338$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 16c | 43,542$6,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,890.21 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…5963backed No | 0c | 43,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 2c | 43,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.18 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…4668backed No | 0c | 41,818$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +192.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42f4…92f5backed No | 2c | 41,115$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…4f87backed No | 1c | 40,976$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +201.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbf…24edbacked No | 0c | 40,295$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +105%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed No | 0c | 40,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…ec94backed No | 0c | 40,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…6420backed No | 0c | 40,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +314%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf52a…e276backed No | 0c | 39,850$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5debbacked No | 3c | 39,444$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.18 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 13c | 36,029$4,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,535.82 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a9…550dbacked No | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?this page
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.