Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4997c22d314ed5e9f3712e46eb4847441b51fa730d10ad26240afa85f5d902be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,281,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,660,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,281,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 464 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed No | 0c | 1,550,697$5,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,929.49 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…37fcbacked No | 0c | 673,762$2,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,695.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ff…ba79backed No | 0c | 514,093$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed No | 0c | 300,433$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.43 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…e559backed No | 9c | 135,229$12,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,000 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed No | 12c | 90,118$10,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,442.32 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aff…d174backed No | 0c | 85,218$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 3c | 81,355$2,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,161.6 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4f…87fcbacked No | 0c | 71,969$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 0c | 65,000$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked No | 5c | 57,965$2,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,780.08 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…4847backed No | 0c | 56,627$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 3c | 53,009$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.68 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd35f…2589backed No | 0c | 49,550$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 6c | 49,455$3,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,109.56 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed No | 7c | 40,826$2,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,810 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked No | 0c | 34,445$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x333a…bd76backed No | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +514.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed No | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 0c | 32,041$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 0c | 30,562$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed No | 7c | 29,654$2,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,177 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…333dbacked No | 14c | 27,879$4,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,032.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…363abacked No | 0c | 26,569$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b9…c30abacked No | 0c | 24,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…5bfcbacked No | 2c | 23,827$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…a98fbacked No | 18c | 23,776$4,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,279 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +1,480.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed No | 1c | 23,710$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.78 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +9.1wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed No | 3c | 22,623$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.49 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed No | 0c | 21,987$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd005…f2c5backed No | 4c | 21,667$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +493.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…ead3backed No | 6c | 20,475$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 4c | 20,067$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.64 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 9c | 20,000$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.65 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5b…26e2backed No | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3305…31dabacked No | 5c | 19,687$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 11c | 19,495$2,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,182.65 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed No | 7c | 18,998$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.89 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 12c | 18,311$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,179.55 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…3ff6backed No | 5c | 18,000$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…3690backed No | 8c | 17,749$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c68…9565backed No | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…5eaebacked No | 1c | 16,611$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…21eabacked No | 0c | 16,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…f151backed No | 2c | 15,823$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 4c | 15,225$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.25 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b57…0b88backed No | 10c | 15,126$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ab…784ebacked No | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fc…9fd4backed No | 2c | 14,327$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…a186backed No | 0c | 13,078$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 5c | 12,195$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.55 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 5c | 11,900$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.18 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked No | 0c | 11,667$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed No | 14c | 11,317$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…951bbacked No | 2c | 11,000$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 11c | 10,405$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.11 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79f6…7504backed No | 1c | 10,277$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b7…5d89backed No | 0c | 10,041$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…f569backed No | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…1a7bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 4cpaid | +807.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcae5…6e29backed No | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +197.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed No | 4c | 9,958$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 3c | 9,732$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.36 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…81c8backed No | 0c | 9,600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…20a5backed No | 6c | 9,404$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…1919backed No | 2c | 9,341$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6566…ea1ebacked No | 1c | 9,227$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed02…4f98backed No | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a2…b1a0backed No | 10c | 9,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 13cpaid | +400.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…41aabacked No | 12c | 8,958$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed No | 2c | 8,793$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 0c | 8,481$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa30a…4550backed No | 0c | 8,333$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked No | 16c | 8,218$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.45 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…4f6fbacked No | 6c | 8,181$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.13 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9956…7c50backed No | 1c | 7,666$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 13c | 7,403$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.81 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6f…1dfebacked No | 21c | 7,200$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 7c | 7,183$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.78 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…fe65backed No | 4c | 7,180$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.2 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa88a…3e8cbacked No | 10c | 6,962$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.22 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c2…0e25backed No | 8c | 6,806$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed Yes | 78c | 6,791$5,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475.14 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed No | 4c | 6,687$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.55 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f80…fa5cbacked No | 3c | 6,510$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 5c | 6,500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 6,400$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf500…7d09backed No | 6c | 6,345$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.54 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe853…6ab0backed No | 8c | 6,301$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 5c | 6,181$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.43 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 18c | 6,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed No | 7c | 6,000$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked No | 3c | 6,000$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb26e…da8ebacked No | 9c | 5,938$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d1…c21fbacked No | 4c | 5,593$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f35…17dabacked No | 2c | 5,437$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 5c | 5,372$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.57 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 4c | 5,276$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.11 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 78c | 5,112$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.86 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked No | 7c | 5,043$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.43 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?this page
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.