TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x333a…bd76

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
99
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT4515.6%7 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.12
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$103
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.1
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.4
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Spain leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+267.3%+$80.18
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$75.24
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Germany leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Spread: Germany (-1.5)backed Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.08
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)backed Uruguay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT2722.2%6 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+514.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$378Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$377.9
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+4,445.5%+$2,667.27
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+600.6%+$600.57
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$83
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+9,880.6%+$1,062.28
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+701.9%+$701.85
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.8
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.94
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$276Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$276.28
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$43.31
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$17.97
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$27.23
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Israel invade Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.63
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$304.85
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.35
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-54.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.18
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+150%+$75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$112.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-05-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valencia vs. Panathinaikosbacked Panathinaikos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.