Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel invade Iran before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd2d14962c82a03ac226941d9f6010ddba7c49d30d3d55186d68e21c24440009
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $434,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $344,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $434,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d47…8644backed Yes | 0c | 20,469$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 13,440$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 12,609$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.64 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 11,996$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.1 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 2c | 11,283$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.62 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…43c0backed Yes | 2c | 10,532$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 1c | 10,304$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 0c | 8,886$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9758…536dbacked Yes | 2c | 8,785$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…a1bebacked Yes | 3c | 8,233$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…56e8backed Yes | 2c | 8,040$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa789…fb63backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe162…8a81backed Yes | 2c | 6,560$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2a…a32dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,059$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 5,595$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9abbbacked Yes | 2c | 5,190$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 3cpaid | +470%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfb…7b61backed Yes | 2c | 4,857$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 4,204$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 4,200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 1c | 3,938$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…35cfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,922$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…d598backed Yes | 1c | 3,550$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1932…aab5backed Yes | 1c | 3,444$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,378$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a37…b78fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,352$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…b899backed Yes | 2c | 3,178$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0c…d70dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,008$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e1…1728backed Yes | 2c | 2,961$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +260.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc605…b8f8backed Yes | 1c | 2,834$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e63…9d35backed Yes | 2c | 2,740$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec1d…5de1backed Yes | 2c | 2,584$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 2c | 2,346$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…fe46backed Yes | 1c | 2,320$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed Yes | 2c | 2,122$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ed…9091backed Yes | 1c | 2,057$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…e25abacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 2c | 1,960$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 2c | 1,926$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x333a…bd76backed Yes | 3c | 1,896$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +514.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf620…a623backed Yes | 2c | 1,659$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…ba7bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,639$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 1c | 1,538$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…b4babacked Yes | 1c | 1,538$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 2c | 1,449$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…1d60backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…dbe0backed Yes | 1c | 1,389$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…838bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,322$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785b…c51dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,277$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…6b7bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,176$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d9…00ecbacked Yes | 2c | 1,079$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…dae8backed Yes | 2c | 1,013$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a5…3744backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded3…b470backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da4…8e21backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 1c | 921.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5abc…80c6backed Yes | 1c | 910$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…c9abbacked Yes | 2c | 818.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5b…463abacked Yes | 2c | 775.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x181a…fff6backed Yes | 1c | 748.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…78a2backed Yes | 2c | 717.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed Yes | 2c | 591.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef42…c078backed Yes | 2c | 564.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 5c | 434.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x132c…c285backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6535…ed2fbacked Yes | 3c | 364.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.