TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,530,016
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,156,798

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,530,016 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 477 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0fda…8405backed Yes0c133,300$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes7c91,764$6,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,520.9817737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes4c56,312$2,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,244.8238237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes7c45,801$3,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,112.1311527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes3c39,730$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.0849023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c39,320$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.493103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97cb…c910backed Yes7c30,799$2,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,040.847030%21 W · 49 L+10.8wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+250.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes15c25,000$3,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,864.9128734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked Yes2c20,507$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.933020%6 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b46…cd0bbacked Yes1c19,489$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-52.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes2c15,978$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.569335.5%33 W · 60 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+33.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes11c15,917$1,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.191723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…f0fbbacked Yes1c15,434$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.752955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes6c15,085$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.3848923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e4f…4594backed Yes11c14,883$1,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,681.646331.7%20 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5297…7b99backed Yes1c14,109$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.877613.2%10 W · 66 L-11.1wins-0.15per pick28cpaid+123.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc124…bd0fbacked Yes1c12,213$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes2c11,687$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.4220438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes12c11,139$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,336.653315.2%5 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes0c10,921$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes1c10,832$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1515234.2%52 W · 100 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes28c10,752$3,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,044.673743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.7wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6330…6841backed Yes2c10,320$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x876b…1703backed Yes2c10,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick14cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c53…8c30backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd87d…52f9backed Yes7c9,500$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.529530.5%29 W · 66 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes28c8,974$2,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,521.62729.6%8 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4414…c9ffbacked Yes2c8,595$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.071513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+302.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5752…8139backed Yes22c8,415$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,833.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+59.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05df…882dbacked Yes2c8,355$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.113748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf23a…50f6backed Yes0c8,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes1c7,500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0213544.4%60 W · 75 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes2c7,345$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.113617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes2c7,291$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.766936.2%25 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd0d9…d6dbbacked Yes16c7,111$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.428433.3%28 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6944…7275backed Yes2c7,068$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.55650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032a…cf07backed Yes0c7,040$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.09500%0 W · 50 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7b66…3a93backed Yes7c7,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4901833.3%6 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+251.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes3c6,972$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.1151138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d37…f007backed Yes22c6,734$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ba…5707backed Yes2c6,552$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.15425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+1,740.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes4c6,391$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.1348630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd43d…8a2abacked Yes1c6,216$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.511650%8 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+563.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb12…d1b3backed Yes0c6,000$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes2c6,000$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbd0…8c1cbacked Yes20c5,885$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.771533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-23%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x272c…7f07backed Yes1c5,555$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.439524.2%23 W · 72 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6009…32acbacked Yes22c5,529$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes3c5,478$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.8816041.9%67 W · 93 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+67.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed Yes1c5,289$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.314520%9 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid+91.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c5,210$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes23c5,187$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,216.7564339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x05c8…2223backed Yes4c5,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.954454.5%24 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes8c4,949$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.5530635.9%110 W · 196 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c58…1fc0backed Yes1c4,881$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick16cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6f8…15ecbacked Yes10c4,568$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ca…b6adbacked Yes5c4,523$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5739…5f1abacked No59c4,500$2,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,829.996532.3%21 W · 44 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed Yes31c4,441$1,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,356.565343.4%23 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd324…b23cbacked No69c4,394$3,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,358.2914944.3%66 W · 83 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd25…5c83backed Yes1c4,359$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.03633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes23c4,347$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.843831.6%12 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes11c4,326$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.915232.9%50 W · 102 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes30c4,267$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.7511038.2%42 W · 68 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes27c4,200$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.6717359.5%103 W · 70 L+12.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9116…fe64backed Yes10c4,151$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Yes2c4,150$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes12c4,131$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.4529653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No75c4,023$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.98749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes2c3,640$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1524712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x333a…bd76backed Yes11c3,562$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.92722.2%6 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+514.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6deb…eb68backed Yes24c3,533$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-74.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes6c3,513$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.7335921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f38…e56cbacked Yes3c3,489$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+39.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9536…369bbacked Yes40c3,392$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.360%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x058f…4883backed No65c3,377$2,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,172.123351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e1f…7828backed Yes12c3,333$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.623724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+76.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes2c3,319$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe35e…abbbbacked Yes21c3,299$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed Yes8c3,233$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.9612341.5%51 W · 72 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes7c3,213$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.4628438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6413…ab24backed Yes8c3,158$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2681526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick43cpaid-52.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed Yes2c3,100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.213246.2%61 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No71c3,044$2,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.4335347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf807…c5dcbacked No76c3,000$2,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.551855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3437…f8f3backed Yes2c2,748$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6215953.5%85 W · 74 L+16.6wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes1c2,742$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30588.6%5 W · 53 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes5c2,728$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.229027.9%81 W · 209 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x371c…c236backed Yes13c2,706$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.5513532.6%44 W · 91 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+24.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed Yes1c2,649$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4918531.9%59 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes3c2,609$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7119648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9db3…1d38backed Yes7c2,555$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.913030%9 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed Yes1c2,543$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.251596.9%11 W · 148 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb17d…59aebacked Yes25c2,522$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.27948.1%38 W · 41 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed Yes1c2,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-82.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed No76c2,282$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.524149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ba7…00efbacked Yes2c2,275$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes3c2,250$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.552742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes17c2,222$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.743729.7%11 W · 26 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-52.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x27a3…9a72backed Yes10c2,146$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.851827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+146.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.