Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89a794aa28381b14fa7233f95b29259a469af28c3b209c2b59f3802fbb93228a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 3c | 16,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.01 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 1c | 5,914$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…5513backed Yes | 2c | 5,100$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 2c | 4,684$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 2c | 4,044$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…4fe5backed Yes | 1c | 4,012$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 4c | 3,333$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.32 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 2,617$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.16 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 2c | 940.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ce…0716backed Yes | 3c | 798.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…e386backed Yes | 3c | 740.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 697.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb828…f6debacked Yes | 3c | 689.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 670$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…9e74backed Yes | 3c | 294.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 6c | 229.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?this page
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?No won
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?No won
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?No won
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?No won
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No won
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?No won
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.