TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,285,719
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,895,806

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,285,719 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 916 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x993c…6787backed Yes18c108,957$19,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,111.5417737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes8c72,027$6,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,080.521723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No70c62,039$43,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,736.647538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes13c53,209$7,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,094.6342818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes15c52,378$7,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,640.7713617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes21c50,336$10,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,429.313315.2%5 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No76c44,707$33,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,763.737740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes11c43,688$4,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,973.5711527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes16c40,422$6,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,305.892236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd20b…3a20backed Yes29c39,934$11,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,753.24845.8%22 W · 26 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+41.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes23c37,605$8,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,701.563743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.7wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x97cb…c910backed Yes13c36,801$4,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,885.687030%21 W · 49 L+10.8wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+250.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xdbd0…8c1cbacked Yes17c36,646$6,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,193.521533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-23%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x876b…1703backed Yes21c35,605$7,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,553.661526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick14cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked Yes12c31,991$3,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,759.272748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1393…c5adbacked Yes9c30,393$2,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,611.871877.8%14 W · 4 L+6.2wins+0.34per pick44cpaid+91.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes30c28,130$8,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,413.7911038.2%42 W · 68 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes18c26,031$4,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,575.2731241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes22c25,727$5,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,615.9942329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes18c25,594$4,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,727.310045%45 W · 55 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x557a…3d56backed Yes10c25,122$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4253625%9 W · 27 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+244.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa65c…7997backed Yes30c22,909$6,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,861.334450%22 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes26c22,804$6,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,000.8813823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb01…ead3backed Yes14c20,699$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9003813.2%5 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed No75c20,000$15,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,921.0410335.9%37 W · 66 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e71…ba82backed Yes22c20,000$4,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,374.7880%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13b3…7552backed Yes2c19,688$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.651735.3%6 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.23per pick12cpaid+484.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes18c19,282$3,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,392.917032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01d1…12a4backed Yes25c18,847$4,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,669.755038%19 W · 31 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+99.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x10e1…aa05backed Yes22c18,244$3,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,990.654017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No72c18,003$12,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,040.6235921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes26c17,304$4,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,437.472729.6%8 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes21c16,870$3,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,551.6219639.8%78 W · 118 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Yes25c16,266$4,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,014.511859.3%70 W · 48 L+14.5wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+38.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8c66…44f3backed No72c15,900$11,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,378.193531.4%11 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes18c15,393$2,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,751.866235.5%22 W · 40 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+15.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x384d…8099backed Yes19c15,286$2,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,866.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+71.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes14c14,532$2,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,002.5448923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes18c13,816$2,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,428.4736227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fb2…af7bbacked No72c13,355$9,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,686.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ff…79dcbacked Yes41c13,154$5,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,352.361573.3%11 W · 4 L+5.0wins+0.33per pick40cpaid+116.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6e4b…3c6dbacked Yes28c13,100$3,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,658.923461.8%21 W · 13 L+8.4wins+0.25per pick37cpaid+48%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No67c13,000$8,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,25035347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked No78c12,884$10,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,815.2716638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes32c12,700$4,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,038366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+36.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No76c12,545$9,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,986.668359%49 W · 34 L+0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef32…265cbacked Yes33c11,978$3,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,978.132138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0799…725cbacked Yes27c11,419$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1002532%8 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7711…650fbacked Yes3c11,360$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…9ea3backed Yes2c10,902$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.171741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+317.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e1f…7828backed Yes16c10,418$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,664.573724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+76.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed Yes25c10,281$2,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,593.465530.9%17 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+48.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes11c10,252$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.738237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes17c10,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70016041.9%67 W · 93 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+67.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes30c10,000$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,009.874143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6413…ab24backed Yes19c9,963$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,860.121526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick43cpaid-52.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…e0eebacked Yes26c9,412$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,480.110838%41 W · 67 L+11.5wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+62.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5297…7b99backed Yes1c9,344$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.567613.2%10 W · 66 L-11.1wins-0.15per pick28cpaid+123.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes20c8,944$1,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7817431.1%23 W · 51 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-6.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd87d…52f9backed Yes14c8,936$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.189530.5%29 W · 66 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No73c8,892$6,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,367.568749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes24c8,804$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,090.0810745.8%49 W · 58 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c8,800$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.52742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed No75c8,770$6,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,162.0524149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No65c8,736$5,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,069.498247.6%39 W · 43 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+67.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xff99…5602backed Yes24c8,438$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004959.2%29 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes6c8,357$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.688626.7%23 W · 63 L+8.7wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+42.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6f8…15ecbacked Yes9c8,354$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9536…369bbacked Yes15c8,333$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25260%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked Yes11c8,289$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.643020%6 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91fc…0109backed Yes17c8,218$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.3511551.3%59 W · 56 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No78c8,214$6,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,775.56262.9%39 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No77c8,121$6,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.7631649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2132…7657backed Yes27c8,014$2,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,195.894645.7%21 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54e4…b74dbacked Yes2c8,000$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes9c7,878$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.5240828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes18c7,700$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.9920617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes17c7,631$1,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.6442738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed Yes23c7,543$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760.375343.4%23 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4def…f8e8backed Yes18c7,403$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.521915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes8c7,281$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.712634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x265e…6e4fbacked Yes11c7,175$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes14c7,142$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.93831.6%12 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes18c7,124$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,291.6314228.2%40 W · 102 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x46c9…7636backed Yes25c7,075$1,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7913652.8%19 W · 17 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick35cpaid+37.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes20c7,025$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.7513441.8%56 W · 78 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No69c6,832$4,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,142.2616739.5%66 W · 101 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes24c6,400$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,543.923040%12 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae86…6e6abacked Yes27c6,400$1,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75460%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes12c6,367$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.6949023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes18c6,363$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.7828438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes22c6,309$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.972740.7%11 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+53.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed Yes1c6,172$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5413246.2%61 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes12c6,109$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.5715232.9%50 W · 102 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1890…20ebbacked No76c6,054$4,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,471.251266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes13c6,002$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.626141%25 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes13c5,719$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75017740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked No67c5,677$3,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,873.412842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+131%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf5b…fb1dbacked Yes9c5,594$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c15…944dbacked Yes24c5,594$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3301233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+812.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.