Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a094629b94ae6e4fd44ab3f539814d38325aba6306f40c1fd316b62244f8dd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $251,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $250,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 1c | 29,872$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.56 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1db…838dbacked Yes | 1c | 14,997$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…3d56backed Yes | 2c | 10,097$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +244.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…ba82backed Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,739$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 6,538$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 6,133$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…9627backed Yes | 3c | 6,072$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes | 1c | 5,688$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 4,780$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 2c | 4,170$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649b…a219backed Yes | 1c | 3,245$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 1c | 2,709$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,704$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 1c | 2,201$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 3c | 1,600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…b1fdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,436$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,229$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4def…f8e8backed Yes | 3c | 1,039$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 13c | 999.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 875$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 5c | 764$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 3c | 748.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 3c | 736.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…6f9cbacked Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10f9…004abacked Yes | 3c | 579.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39f…8506backed Yes | 17c | 516.82$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 3c | 449.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 5c | 428.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 12c | 325$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 11c | 317.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…6fb1backed Yes | 16c | 314.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…5362backed Yes | 17c | 299.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5489…1633backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cf…6fd8backed Yes | 14c | 143.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 10c | 113$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 12c | 100.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 15c | 85.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 14c | 81.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…cd69backed Yes | 16c | 73.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…abbdbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?this page
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?No won
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?No won
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?No won
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No won
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?No won
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?No won
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.