Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa37edbac74383987e7b3c4e25360c223207b5f8ffdaaddea7e6e62ab2aa0d56a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,483,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,481,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,483,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 345 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 13c | 78,275$10,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,228.1 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…ba82backed Yes | 20c | 51,366$10,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,053.39 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 11c | 46,283$5,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,222.87 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 19c | 29,308$5,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,434.65 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…3d56backed Yes | 6c | 26,301$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +244.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x247c…4034backed Yes | 17c | 26,221$4,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,511 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 7c | 22,715$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.57 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 76c | 16,000$12,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,868.5 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Yes | 22c | 13,777$3,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,015.61 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 1c | 12,494$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8c1cbacked Yes | 8c | 11,858$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 6c | 11,334$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.89 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…70b0backed Yes | 26c | 10,639$2,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,752.87 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 11c | 10,446$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.74 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 14c | 10,381$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.29 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 13c | 10,000$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.75 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 77c | 9,999$7,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,285.33 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…37cabacked Yes | 13c | 9,310$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.12 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6413…ab24backed Yes | 16c | 8,871$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 19c | 8,408$1,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,626.91 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6deb…eb68backed Yes | 7c | 8,296$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…7822backed Yes | 23c | 7,975$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 14c | 7,555$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.55 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 5c | 7,473$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.96 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 8c | 7,278$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.71 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 11c | 7,080$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 6c | 6,981$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.67 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 15c | 6,812$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.78 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes | 16c | 6,800$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.8 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 6,760$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.97 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302f…dc90backed Yes | 8c | 6,652$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 3c | 6,334$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.85 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes | 13c | 5,758$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.66 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed Yes | 18c | 5,700$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.38 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked No | 73c | 5,568$4,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.96 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +131%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…af38backed Yes | 15c | 5,549$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 19cpaid | +399.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 5c | 5,533$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.67 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 13c | 5,417$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.95 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 30c | 5,077$1,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,514.29 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5be…7286backed Yes | 5c | 4,530$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 4,351$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 8c | 4,273$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.52 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda8…6ca8backed Yes | 14c | 4,195$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.6 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 4c | 4,050$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.85 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 6c | 4,024$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.88 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked No | 73c | 3,830$2,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.85 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf807…c5dcbacked No | 78c | 3,795$2,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.23 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked Yes | 18c | 3,627$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 20c | 3,500$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.01 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…50c8backed Yes | 16c | 3,478$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.89 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 1c | 3,454$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Yes | 3c | 3,324$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1f…7828backed Yes | 7c | 3,100$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.6 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e5…b808backed Yes | 18c | 3,075$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 8c | 3,072$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.01 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 23c | 3,019$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.96 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 10c | 3,018$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.6 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes | 11c | 3,017$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.89 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.24per pick | 28cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 74c | 3,000$2,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.9 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes | 6c | 3,000$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 74c | 2,982$2,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.63 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8931…a90cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,825$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 2c | 2,808$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9175…6acfbacked Yes | 24c | 2,778$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…24d7backed Yes | 11c | 2,680$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d88…9e0cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,679$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 78c | 2,660$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.03 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…9627backed Yes | 14c | 2,639$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed Yes | 22c | 2,629$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.07 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 2,622$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.49 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 11c | 2,563$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.1 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…4494backed Yes | 14c | 2,555$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…517dbacked No | 80c | 2,503$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.21 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33be…adc8backed Yes | 19c | 2,500$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.08 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…9ea3backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +317.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 11c | 2,462$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.85 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked Yes | 17c | 2,451$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.89 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 21c | 2,378$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.66 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 28c | 2,324$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.12 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 76c | 2,276$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.16 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 59c | 2,218$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 79c | 2,187$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.75 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…e3f4backed Yes | 14c | 2,133$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…20a3backed Yes | 16c | 2,132$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.6 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 5c | 2,067$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,030$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 71c | 2,007$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.27 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da2…f179backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 1,955$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 8c | 1,931$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.66 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 1c | 1,872$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 4c | 1,867$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 17c | 1,847$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.32 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed Yes | 15c | 1,811$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.64 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…bcedbacked Yes | 28c | 1,803$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…ccb5backed Yes | 5c | 1,739$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f6…4bfdbacked Yes | 27c | 1,736$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.1 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…3f38backed Yes | 27c | 1,726$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.98 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf394…ad79backed Yes | 13c | 1,709$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?this page
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?No won
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?No won
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?No won
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No won
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?No won
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?No won
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.