TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,483,349
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,481,596

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,483,349 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 345 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes13c78,275$10,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,228.116125.5%41 W · 120 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e71…ba82backed Yes20c51,366$10,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,053.3980%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes11c46,283$5,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,222.8712634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x01d1…12a4backed Yes19c29,308$5,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,434.655038%19 W · 31 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+99.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x557a…3d56backed Yes6c26,301$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6003625%9 W · 27 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+244.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x247c…4034backed Yes17c26,221$4,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5111353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x876b…1703backed Yes7c22,715$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.571526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick14cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No76c16,000$12,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,868.516041.9%67 W · 93 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+67.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e52…00f5backed Yes22c13,777$3,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,015.612611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef32…265cbacked Yes1c12,494$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.42138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd0…8c1cbacked Yes8c11,858$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.121533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-23%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes6c11,334$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.8949023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54e4…70b0backed Yes26c10,639$2,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,752.873935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked Yes11c10,446$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.743020%6 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…e0eebacked Yes14c10,381$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.2910838%41 W · 67 L+11.5wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+62.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa65c…7997backed Yes13c10,000$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.754450%22 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No77c9,999$7,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,285.338247.6%39 W · 43 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+67.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc984…37cabacked Yes13c9,310$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.121838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6413…ab24backed Yes16c8,871$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.551526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick43cpaid-52.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes19c8,408$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.9111038.2%42 W · 68 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6deb…eb68backed Yes7c8,296$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.98812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-74.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7555…7822backed Yes23c7,975$1,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,802.41735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes14c7,555$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.5520617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes5c7,473$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.9613617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes8c7,278$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.7143212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97cb…c910backed Yes11c7,080$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7607030%21 W · 49 L+10.8wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+250.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes6c6,981$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.6731241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes15c6,812$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.782729.6%8 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes16c6,800$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.85151%26 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+48.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c6,760$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.971,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x302f…dc90backed Yes8c6,652$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52950%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes3c6,334$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.853103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes13c5,758$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.663315.2%5 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c66…44f3backed Yes18c5,700$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.383531.4%11 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked No73c5,568$4,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,515.962842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+131%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…af38backed Yes15c5,549$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.28757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.38per pick19cpaid+399.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes5c5,533$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.6744224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd20b…3a20backed Yes13c5,417$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.954845.8%22 W · 26 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+41.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes30c5,077$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,514.294143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5be…7286backed Yes5c4,530$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.9812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c4,351$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.12283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes8c4,273$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.5242329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda8…6ca8backed Yes14c4,195$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.65743.9%25 W · 32 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes4c4,050$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.852742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d77…cf31backed Yes6c4,024$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.881146.1%7 W · 107 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…9ffdbacked No73c3,830$2,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.857248.6%35 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf807…c5dcbacked No78c3,795$2,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.231855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe32b…626ebacked Yes18c3,627$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.05633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes20c3,500$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.014748.9%23 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+46.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe38e…50c8backed Yes16c3,478$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.892317.4%4 W · 19 L-5.2wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-68.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x032a…cf07backed Yes1c3,454$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.38500%0 W · 50 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9f9e…4c57backed Yes3c3,324$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90200%0 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e1f…7828backed Yes7c3,100$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.63724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+76.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8e5…b808backed Yes18c3,075$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.8825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid+25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3db…0f98backed Yes8c3,072$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.017150.7%36 W · 35 L+11.2wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+94.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes23c3,019$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.9620823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes10c3,018$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.619639.8%78 W · 118 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes11c3,017$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.89254%1 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.24per pick28cpaid-83.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No74c3,000$2,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.928734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes6c3,000$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1727938%30 W · 49 L+9.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+42.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No74c2,982$2,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.6320143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8931…a90cbacked Yes3c2,825$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6360%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes2c2,808$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1235347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9175…6acfbacked Yes24c2,778$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.28540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0c…24d7backed Yes11c2,680$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d88…9e0cbacked Yes12c2,679$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb17d…59aebacked No78c2,660$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.037948.1%38 W · 41 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c92…9627backed Yes14c2,639$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3603225%8 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e4f…4594backed Yes22c2,629$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.076331.7%20 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes4c2,622$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.4948923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30db…33c0backed Yes11c2,563$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.18829.5%26 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid+22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce16…4494backed Yes14c2,555$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f90…517dbacked No80c2,503$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.211968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33be…adc8backed Yes19c2,500$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.082321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-38.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…9ea3backed Yes4c2,500$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.51741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+317.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes11c2,462$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.8512023.3%28 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+3.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd0d9…d6dbbacked Yes17c2,451$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.898433.3%28 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes21c2,378$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.6638237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8196…ab69backed Yes28c2,324$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.124845.8%22 W · 26 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No76c2,276$1,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.165836.2%21 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+73%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No59c2,218$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90036634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No79c2,187$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.7529653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x697e…e3f4backed Yes14c2,133$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-48.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61b9…20a3backed Yes16c2,132$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.65026%13 W · 37 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes5c2,067$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.325913.6%8 W · 51 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes2c2,030$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7216225.9%42 W · 120 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No71c2,007$1,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.2719648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88019739.1%77 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6da2…f179backed Yes4c2,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes1c1,955$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20588.6%5 W · 53 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes8c1,931$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.6628438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes1c1,872$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4111334.5%39 W · 74 L-7.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes4c1,867$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1122529.8%67 W · 158 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes17c1,847$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.3211323.9%27 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c4f…e321backed Yes15c1,811$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.641010%1 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-85.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf8bb…bcedbacked Yes28c1,803$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9468…ccb5backed Yes5c1,739$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-55%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45f6…4bfdbacked Yes27c1,736$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.11643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda66…3f38backed Yes27c1,726$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.98875%6 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf394…ad79backed Yes13c1,709$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.