TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$701,563
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$559,049

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $701,563 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 310 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x993c…6787backed Yes10c29,655$2,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,963.5417737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97cb…c910backed Yes6c28,913$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7987030%21 W · 49 L+10.8wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+250.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes12c20,425$2,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,461.6913617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No76c20,206$15,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,849.547538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e71…ba82backed Yes24c20,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80080%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes20c16,752$3,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,268.844143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes4c15,600$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.0449023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8647…74a9backed Yes11c11,406$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2551040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x127b…afa7backed Yes0c10,484$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252222.7%5 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick9cpaid+45.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes14c10,173$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,418.185151%26 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+48.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4def…f8e8backed Yes15c10,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.81915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes15c9,997$1,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.1516553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x302f…dc90backed Yes9c9,229$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.450%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b66…3a93backed Yes9c9,000$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.991833.3%6 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+251.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbd0…8c1cbacked Yes9c8,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7201533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-23%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6f8…15ecbacked Yes4c7,703$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2132…7657backed No74c7,619$5,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,957.924645.7%21 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes4c7,606$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.2411527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes5c7,555$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.9748923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x876b…1703backed Yes9c6,920$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.31526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick14cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd87d…52f9backed Yes4c6,196$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.449530.5%29 W · 66 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes8c6,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4805829.3%17 W · 41 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes13c5,700$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75022227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4fec…135dbacked Yes17c5,548$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.132339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+123.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes33c5,471$1,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80538237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed Yes14c5,439$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.0312341.5%51 W · 72 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6deb…eb68backed Yes13c4,961$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.9812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-74.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x285e…f38cbacked Yes14c4,718$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.371216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes23c4,467$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.063315.2%5 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes3c4,441$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.943103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc91b…93bdbacked No77c4,358$3,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.927745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27a3…9a72backed Yes5c4,255$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.851827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+146.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No68c4,215$2,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.9235347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7711…650fbacked Yes7c4,000$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.8840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05df…882dbacked Yes12c4,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4803748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes10c3,965$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.0648630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…9ffdbacked Yes29c3,827$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.267248.6%35 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes5c3,805$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.028514.1%12 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes13c3,722$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.4531241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e1f…7828backed Yes6c3,711$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.123724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+76.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6413…ab24backed Yes17c3,324$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.571526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick43cpaid-52.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c3,112$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.58283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf92…32e6backed Yes3c3,077$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes16c3,027$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.936936.2%25 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa00b…5c3cbacked Yes5c3,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.57333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick5cpaid+485%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c92…9627backed Yes19c2,850$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5303225%8 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10af…de20backed Yes4c2,692$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13b3…7552backed Yes1c2,552$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301735.3%6 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.23per pick12cpaid+484.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes30c2,545$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.9520823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0c…24d7backed Yes18c2,531$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes35c2,500$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.854748.9%23 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+46.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x557a…3d56backed Yes4c2,393$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1013625%9 W · 27 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+244.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed No78c2,262$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.8911334.5%39 W · 74 L-7.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes8c2,222$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.7637740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes15c2,200$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33014228.2%40 W · 102 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x30db…33c0backed Yes27c2,176$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5848829.5%26 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid+22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes2c2,150$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.891657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61b9…20a3backed Yes16c2,126$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.125026%13 W · 37 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes12c2,123$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.7511323.9%27 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes10c2,009$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.2315338.6%59 W · 94 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x333a…bd76backed Yes2c2,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342722.2%6 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+514.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No78c2,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44026429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8196…ab69backed Yes12c2,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2404845.8%22 W · 26 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6aca…31f2backed Yes3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601729.4%5 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6203743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.7wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x64a9…7311backed Yes15c1,984$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300397.7%3 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdda5…c82abacked Yes22c1,957$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.55955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+44.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…e0eebacked Yes32c1,859$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.810838%41 W · 67 L+11.5wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+62.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8c66…44f3backed No77c1,842$1,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.393531.4%11 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed No69c1,831$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.8830635.9%110 W · 196 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes9c1,800$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.7735921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c1,797$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.944769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes10c1,793$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.7612432.3%40 W · 84 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…7997backed Yes30c1,737$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.954450%22 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes6c1,567$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9021034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes16c1,539$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.6915434.4%53 W · 101 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x793d…8720backed Yes3c1,529$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.924734%16 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-13.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes11c1,528$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.9329027.9%81 W · 209 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes6c1,510$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7928126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb4…afe9backed Yes11c1,485$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.383234.4%11 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8a2…54c2backed No69c1,474$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.9410333%34 W · 69 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes8c1,467$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.72217.2%16 W · 205 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34d4…597fbacked Yes4c1,465$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,455$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.481,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No80c1,453$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.2636227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes10c1,430$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.975913.6%8 W · 51 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd324…b23cbacked Yes1c1,395$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514944.3%66 W · 83 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes5c1,300$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.52742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No75c1,226$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.2120143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes30c1,219$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.75954.2%32 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No79c1,200$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25816447.6%78 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes30c1,198$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.1710745.8%49 W · 58 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1834…051ebacked Yes7c1,150$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.511231.3%35 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+86.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes11c1,150$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.264812.5%6 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb6e…0f70backed Yes15c1,100$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes19c1,073$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20034440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8d6…e410backed Yes5c1,010$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22040939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec56…13a7backed Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x265e…6e4fbacked Yes7c999.91$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.