Middle East · resolved market
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ba348328e4d4ddee9e6734c9a369b2e8138611651f9f6dc8f59dea51df6c734
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,430,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,120,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,430,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,926 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 1c | 779,976$5,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,489.99 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf8…4caabacked Yes | 2c | 698,104$13,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,974.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…809abacked Yes | 4c | 323,957$11,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,800 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 11c | 256,967$27,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,883.82 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…cdb9backed Yes | 2c | 188,889$3,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,757.13 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3915…faffbacked Yes | 31c | 158,138$48,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,266.13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 27c | 157,708$42,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,544.9 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes | 9c | 149,561$13,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,378.78 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked Yes | 76c | 145,136$110,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110,291.26 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f93…7441backed No | 15c | 120,120$18,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101,668.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.63per pick | 12cpaid | +693%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed Yes | 20c | 118,992$23,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,528.95 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 1c | 105,612$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…4f15backed Yes | 0c | 102,698$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.96 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 15c | 90,449$13,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,826.76 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…2945backed Yes | 1c | 89,464$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1113…9ba3backed Yes | 27c | 80,357$21,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 33c | 78,959$26,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,103 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 75,174$53,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,537.88 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked No | 3c | 75,095$2,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72,749.47 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 69c | 71,341$49,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,098.13 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…11bdbacked No | 59c | 68,180$40,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,005.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked Yes | 31c | 67,954$20,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,826.68 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 20c | 67,541$13,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,926.77 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…ed0dbacked Yes | 9c | 66,871$6,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,017.11 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…977cbacked Yes | 1c | 65,972$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.39 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +6.4wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed Yes | 1c | 65,006$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.37 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f7…92f8backed Yes | 25c | 62,492$15,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,749.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…b0f8backed Yes | 1c | 56,809$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f70…0ca9backed Yes | 1c | 56,658$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f48…a145backed No | 1c | 53,460$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,925.37 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 42cpaid | +1,153%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes | 14c | 49,719$6,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,918.73 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 74c | 49,609$36,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,927.19 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 33c | 49,265$16,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,049.62 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 1c | 49,250$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 31c | 46,568$14,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,599.56 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes | 3c | 46,329$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…4f1bbacked Yes | 73c | 46,310$33,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,590.01 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed No | 63c | 45,992$28,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,092.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 8c | 45,651$3,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,840.36 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 62c | 44,461$27,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,039.49 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…d92dbacked Yes | 46c | 43,715$20,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,199.44 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes | 2c | 42,571$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.4 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 1c | 41,430$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,973.85 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed No | 28c | 40,160$11,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,770.31 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 69c | 38,524$26,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,027.99 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ab…86cfbacked No | 78c | 38,142$29,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,243.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd43d…8a2abacked No | 3c | 37,894$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,931.32 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +563.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…71d2backed No | 3c | 36,504$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,505.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 1cpaid | +1,727%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 26c | 36,458$9,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,935.51 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked No | 44c | 36,000$15,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,036 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…ccb5backed Yes | 1c | 35,096$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 50c | 35,049$17,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,517.99 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…d2f2backed Yes | 1c | 35,000$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.9 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…def7backed Yes | 1c | 34,764$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.54 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…6e8bbacked No | 71c | 34,170$24,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,770.23 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…4aa3backed No | 1c | 33,832$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,411.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +946.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…ead3backed Yes | 1c | 32,720$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes | 4c | 32,698$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.28 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…14c9backed Yes | 3c | 30,285$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3498…5088backed Yes | 1c | 30,000$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68aa…ea5ebacked Yes | 1c | 30,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…384ebacked Yes | 1c | 29,716$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.6 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes | 33c | 28,000$9,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,240 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dda…df45backed Yes | 1c | 27,814$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…509cbacked Yes | 2c | 27,485$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.26 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 14c | 26,724$3,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,858.39 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 75c | 26,720$19,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,723.49 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 16c | 26,697$4,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,287.39 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a98…3a60backed Yes | 1c | 26,240$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 1c | 26,058$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.65 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed Yes | 32c | 25,860$8,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,334.03 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 2c | 25,800$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.44 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e4…93ecbacked Yes | 1c | 25,625$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 48c | 25,111$12,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,030.41 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5a…b691backed Yes | 1c | 25,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed No | 74c | 24,020$17,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,228.81 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…7c9ebacked No | 15c | 23,641$3,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,977.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…7417backed Yes | 2c | 23,557$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +158.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…f295backed Yes | 32c | 23,120$7,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,443.25 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223b…85dfbacked Yes | 3c | 22,966$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.99 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x776d…533abacked Yes | 1c | 22,667$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4773…2289backed No | 69c | 22,477$15,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,954.81 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 1c | 22,040$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6eb…88a8backed Yes | 22c | 22,000$4,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,741.81 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc15b…38afbacked No | 79c | 22,000$17,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,620 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 2c | 21,903$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.35 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 26c | 21,837$5,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,695.43 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc312…5e62backed Yes | 31c | 21,603$6,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,802.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e3…17e1backed Yes | 1c | 21,600$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…a21dbacked Yes | 1c | 21,310$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 74c | 21,100$15,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,474.4 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 79c | 21,000$16,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,496.41 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked Yes | 7c | 21,000$1,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.47 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…3068backed No | 1c | 20,790$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,503.02 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +624.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…aa05backed Yes | 2c | 20,728$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 62c | 20,508$12,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,780.14 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7858…eb9dbacked Yes | 1c | 20,460$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0a…6027backed No | 72c | 20,348$14,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,619.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed No | 39c | 20,281$7,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,396.28 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 10c | 20,273$1,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,961 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?this page
- Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 22?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 15?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 18?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 21?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 6?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 7?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.