Middle East · resolved market

Iran closes its airspace by May 21?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x098afead2c41677b0f09ae9d0013ca520eacdb3f0d7c8985c6581de7a0e9ac37

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 22, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,782,046
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,933,770

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,782,046 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 531 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcf60…47cebacked Yes	17c	223,420$37,713 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37,712.81	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes	14c	88,820$12,860 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,860.11	85	30.6%26 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3915…faffbacked Yes	12c	86,816$10,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,999.71	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.12per pick	10cpaid	+131.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc312…5e62backed Yes	15c	81,440$11,857 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,856.56	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3811…8f61backed Yes	18c	68,169$12,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,000	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes	12c	67,999$7,872 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,872.11	148	21.6%32 W · 116 L	-24.5wins	-0.17per pick	38cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x88ae…809abacked Yes	12c	67,625$8,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,000	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+19%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes	12c	60,665$7,165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,165.24	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+42%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x746f…566dbacked Yes	0c	54,055$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.11	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	+6.3wins	+0.17per pick	32cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc266…2f2fbacked Yes	10c	50,000$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,999.95	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+105.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes	12c	41,459$5,131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,131.29	225	29.8%67 W · 158 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes	6c	37,444$2,299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,299.05	161	25.5%41 W · 120 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcf8…4caabacked Yes	3c	35,973$995 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$995.5	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb01…ead3backed Yes	15c	34,322$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	38	13.2%5 W · 33 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes	14c	33,750$4,805 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,805.39	142	28.2%40 W · 102 L	+9.5wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+34%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked Yes	17c	33,339$5,777 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,776.82	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed Yes	19c	31,173$6,072 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,072.23	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes	13c	27,703$3,695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,695.41	136	17.6%24 W · 112 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+58.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes	1c	24,942$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.36	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	6cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc8e…d4bcbacked Yes	10c	24,769$2,506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,505.81	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes	12c	24,484$3,027 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,026.6	215	25.1%54 W · 161 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a33…c087backed Yes	13c	23,029$2,925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,925.02	30	20%6 W · 24 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0543…8d20backed Yes	7c	21,041$1,487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,486.87	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	26cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes	12c	20,000$2,312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,312.38	170	18.2%31 W · 139 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+77.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No	79c	20,000$15,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,300	126	50.8%64 W · 62 L	+11.3wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x72df…b62cbacked Yes	12c	18,519$2,174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,174	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	+15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c5b…26e2backed Yes	11c	18,353$2,011 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,011.35	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes	17c	17,341$3,026 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,026.3	196	48%94 W · 102 L	+7.0wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes	14c	17,010$2,311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,310.98	55	36.4%20 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ef…f569backed Yes	6c	16,016$1,001 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,001.5	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	12cpaid	+95.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes	11c	15,963$1,684 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,683.76	100	45%45 W · 55 L	+8.8wins	+0.09per pick	36cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd624…a0f8backed Yes	10c	14,495$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	52	34.6%18 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	14c	14,048$1,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,900.41	442	24.4%108 W · 334 L	+22.2wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a9f…e03bbacked Yes	9c	14,012$1,297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,296.84	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3199…fdf3backed Yes	2c	14,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	+3.4wins	+0.12per pick	6cpaid	+120.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes	11c	12,820$1,422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,421.89	137	38%52 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes	9c	12,447$1,124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,123.71	215	31.2%67 W · 148 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes	13c	12,221$1,611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,610.95	377	40.1%151 W · 226 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes	11c	12,166$1,343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,343.06	168	31%52 W · 116 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39a6…ebddbacked Yes	12c	11,928$1,447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,447.39	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	+4.5wins	+0.17per pick	17cpaid	+143.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes	13c	11,810$1,501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500.61	177	40.7%72 W · 105 L	+13.9wins	+0.08per pick	33cpaid	+36%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8823…9769backed Yes	2c	11,065$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed Yes	8c	11,000$880 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$880	53	43.4%23 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes	13c	11,000$1,480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,479.99	105	28.6%30 W · 75 L	+4.8wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes	8c	10,490$869 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$868.71	255	18%46 W · 209 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes	7c	10,010$668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$667.71	432	12.5%54 W · 378 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed Yes	13c	10,000$1,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,300	89	37.1%33 W · 56 L	+5.0wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcae5…6e29backed Yes	4c	10,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+197.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes	2c	9,838$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.5	115	27%31 W · 84 L	+7.6wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No	80c	9,727$7,779 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,948.16	195	31.8%62 W · 133 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	13c	9,456$1,258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,258.45	423	29.1%123 W · 300 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-12%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes	14c	9,202$1,288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,288.25	204	38.7%79 W · 125 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5297…7b99backed Yes	2c	8,642$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.38	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-11.1wins	-0.15per pick	28cpaid	+123.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd414…a4dbbacked No	80c	8,591$6,859 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,732.11	64	39.1%25 W · 39 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes	11c	8,581$925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$924.57	563	36.6%206 W · 357 L	+44.4wins	+0.08per pick	29cpaid	+37.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4354…89a9backed Yes	3c	8,309$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.34	25	12%3 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-71.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes	3c	8,162$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.12	57	31.6%18 W · 39 L	+3.3wins	+0.06per pick	26cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Yes	10c	7,777$778 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$777.68	118	59.3%70 W · 48 L	+14.5wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+38.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x88e2…7489backed Yes	8c	7,500$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	86	33.7%29 W · 57 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes	14c	7,344$1,038 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,038.25	208	23.1%48 W · 160 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf09…c4dabacked Yes	5c	7,244$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2989…9fe4backed Yes	5c	7,000$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551b…b47ebacked Yes	5c	6,794$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.39	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes	12c	6,630$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+97.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes	11c	6,517$743 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$742.77	191	19.9%38 W · 153 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes	10c	6,302$631 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$631	135	18.5%25 W · 110 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-16%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x285e…f38cbacked Yes	15c	6,273$961 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$960.6	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes	15c	6,194$922 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$921.78	58	29.3%17 W · 41 L	+3.8wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x87e7…ea43backed Yes	11c	6,190$702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$702.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.26per pick	24cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes	7c	6,000$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430	202	39.1%79 W · 123 L	+20.4wins	+0.10per pick	29cpaid	+44.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x92c2…0e25backed Yes	6c	5,990$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b49…70aabacked Yes	11c	5,898$670 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$670	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x989e…0964backed Yes	19c	5,844$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb3…4268backed Yes	11c	5,832$642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$641.53	74	21.6%16 W · 58 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c7f…09efbacked Yes	9c	5,711$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes	12c	5,607$673 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$672.82	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-3.0wins	-0.12per pick	21cpaid	-87.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd456…d8d5backed Yes	9c	5,556$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes	9c	5,556$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-6.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	+149.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes	17c	5,522$959 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$958.95	89	28.1%25 W · 64 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	+74.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97cb…c910backed Yes	11c	5,500$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	70	30%21 W · 49 L	+10.8wins	+0.15per pick	15cpaid	+250.2%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x0000…9ac5backed Yes	14c	5,500$763 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$763	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6098…c419backed Yes	3c	5,191$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.48	45	11.1%5 W · 40 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bed…7574backed Yes	6c	5,092$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.04	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.15per pick	25cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2b9…631bbacked Yes	2c	5,083$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes	11c	5,000$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	90	28.9%26 W · 64 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75bd…1feabacked Yes	2c	4,872$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.2	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…e0eebacked Yes	16c	4,617$739 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$738.67	108	38%41 W · 67 L	+11.5wins	+0.11per pick	27cpaid	+62.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9e5b…7796backed Yes	14c	4,550$637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$637	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-2.3wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe467…437fbacked Yes	11c	4,504$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	+3.7wins	+0.14per pick	16cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes	6c	4,470$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.52	73	41.1%30 W · 43 L	+7.4wins	+0.10per pick	31cpaid	+31.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked No	76c	4,386$3,339 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,046.69	132	50%66 W · 66 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes	11c	4,357$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe03…f14fbacked Yes	10c	4,300$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.61	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-3.4wins	-0.23per pick	43cpaid	-70.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc9bc…ac3abacked Yes	20c	4,237$866 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$866	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.25per pick	15cpaid	+126.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4146…86e3backed Yes	2c	4,200$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.6	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x270d…5ff2backed Yes	12c	4,100$508 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$508	67	22.4%15 W · 52 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+76.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes	2c	4,085$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.22	165	7.3%12 W · 153 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac42…60d1backed Yes	14c	4,040$577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$576.6	36	50%18 W · 18 L	+3.5wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x42e2…d154backed Yes	13c	4,006$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520.83	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	33cpaid	-71%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes	12c	4,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	264	29.2%77 W · 187 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Iran closes its airspace by May 21?this page
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Yes won
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?Yes won
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes won
Iran closes its airspace by June 22?Yes won
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes won
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Yes won
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?No won
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?No won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?No won
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?No won
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No won
Iran closes its airspace by May 6?No won
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?No won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Iran closes its airspace by May 21?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event