Middle East · resolved market
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46e99bb62eda23f2d65b8d789910e54e205c14b16b59939d51b01a55f63e7c38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $345,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $382,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $345,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 25,359$13,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,655.76 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe958…66b7backed No | 62c | 22,730$14,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,027.43 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -5.4wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 4c | 17,215$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 4c | 11,126$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.27 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3554…d825backed No | 5c | 8,666$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +844.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 62c | 8,205$5,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,151.31 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 7,963$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 38c | 6,817$2,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,232.84 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 69c | 6,600$4,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,544.37 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 33c | 5,635$1,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,799.15 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 63c | 5,507$3,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,064.39 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 11c | 5,330$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.83 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…9281backed No | 64c | 5,021$3,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,235.69 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 30c | 5,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,500 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked No | 3c | 4,892$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.79 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x436d…6c1dbacked No | 73c | 4,110$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No | 62c | 4,016$2,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,490 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed No | 69c | 4,000$2,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,760 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 76c | 3,900$2,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.6 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3241…2cc5backed Yes | 33c | 3,772$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,524.33 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x66d7…5b7bbacked Yes | 33c | 3,761$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,504.19 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 31c | 3,300$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,272.02 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed No | 15c | 3,225$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.97 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -9.9wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 71c | 3,182$2,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.97 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 1c | 2,835$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8453…778dbacked No | 68c | 2,800$1,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,907.99 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 76c | 2,523$1,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.34 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 53c | 2,089$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 26c | 2,016$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.28 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 52c | 1,839$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.4 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed Yes | 58c | 1,737$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.51 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a2…71ddbacked No | 3c | 1,663$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 11c | 1,600$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab3a…41a0backed Yes | 32c | 1,566$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.63 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…abe1backed Yes | 32c | 1,565$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.69 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 16c | 1,504$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.41 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed No | 67c | 1,501$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.3 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…637bbacked No | 2c | 1,306$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 19c | 1,304$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.17 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 16c | 1,200$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.18 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcec…d169backed Yes | 60c | 1,125$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.94 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed Yes | 62c | 1,042$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.82 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed No | 47c | 929.55$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.44 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 29c | 904.94$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.96 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 70c | 900$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.05 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…4ec7backed Yes | 30c | 894.01$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.11 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +121%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked No | 69c | 891.96$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.45 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -11.4wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fea1backed Yes | 31c | 847.35$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.67 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc487…ab80backed Yes | 53c | 805$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.85 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd726…b5c9backed Yes | 27c | 800$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 70c | 800$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 25c | 773.12$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.16 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Yes | 72c | 762.41$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.47 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…184bbacked No | 36c | 734.47$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.79 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…db31backed No | 66c | 699.99$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 67c | 699.98$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.99 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…a676backed No | 68c | 693.48$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 66c | 655.55$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.12 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 638.95$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.56 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 36c | 614$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.96 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…21bebacked Yes | 41c | 606.61$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.61 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 600$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 13c | 588.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked Yes | 74c | 518.32$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.95 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 34c | 509.98$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.26 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 63c | 474.26$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…e462backed Yes | 32c | 472.9$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.59 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…8aabbacked No | 6c | 471.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 31.9%29 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed Yes | 32c | 460.45$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.06 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 41c | 440$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.4 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 73c | 435.13$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.14 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27d0…7943backed Yes | 79c | 406.28$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 67c | 400$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…900ebacked No | 70c | 400$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 54c | 386$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.56 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 77c | 371.74$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.29 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e8…7b51backed No | 5c | 370$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 5c | 361.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 36c | 350$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.6 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked Yes | 35c | 349.99$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.49 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 60c | 330.09$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.79 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 34c | 303.02$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.99 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 4c | 299.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked No | 63c | 289.08$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 14c | 287.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca1…d96bbacked No | 4c | 287.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 43c | 277.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.67 | 131 | 38.2%50 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 55c | 271.54$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.47 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…693ebacked No | 66c | 266.85$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -5.0wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 31c | 252.18$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.08 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Yes | 42c | 250$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.35 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8831…4a89backed Yes | 34c | 210$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…6b3abacked Yes | 67c | 200.67$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +12.3wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…993cbacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95a…6092backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec2…f266backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 63c | 200$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran closes its airspace by July 31?this page
- Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 22?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 15?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 18?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 21?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 6?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 7?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.