Middle East · resolved market
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10614339b310b66f52a38e53588937898935974ac452910154473cc4c353d072
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $664,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $503,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $664,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 33,438$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.69 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…509cbacked Yes | 1c | 21,333$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 6c | 20,078$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.21 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 2c | 18,139$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.6 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 2c | 16,956$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.45 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fa…1a63backed Yes | 5c | 15,347$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.17 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…e43ebacked Yes | 7c | 13,722$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 2c | 13,185$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.5 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c41…d286backed Yes | 2c | 11,869$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked Yes | 3c | 10,441$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.44 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 7c | 10,146$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.71 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 6c | 10,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 1c | 9,000$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 8,961$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…0c30backed Yes | 4c | 8,014$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 2c | 7,992$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.5 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 1c | 7,105$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.29 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…7e46backed Yes | 1c | 7,032$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 1c | 7,022$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 3c | 6,986$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.33 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 2c | 6,542$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.85 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…1083backed Yes | 3c | 6,200$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c870backed Yes | 1c | 5,529$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…5452backed Yes | 3c | 5,071$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.28 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2771…d030backed Yes | 6c | 4,817$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…85ecbacked Yes | 1c | 4,762$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +9.7wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +186.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 3c | 4,738$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.84 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,500$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.34 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,493$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.68 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 4,326$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…40b5backed Yes | 2c | 4,200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 5c | 4,176$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.76 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 2c | 4,124$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0851…06d3backed Yes | 1c | 3,447$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 9c | 3,430$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…a232backed Yes | 4c | 3,095$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 1c | 3,050$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 3,042$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.46 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…fccbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,827$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8284…86f0backed Yes | 4c | 2,733$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 2c | 2,628$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,421$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 2,329$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…74cabacked Yes | 8c | 2,173$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 5c | 2,100$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.52 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 2,013$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c40…3d64backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…65d2backed Yes | 3c | 1,984$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…521ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,972$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,943$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 3c | 1,917$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 3c | 1,733$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…bbd8backed Yes | 9c | 1,673$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.88 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb624…3905backed Yes | 7c | 1,671$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf04…11e3backed Yes | 3c | 1,588$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,490$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc5…aa4bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,477$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb2…897dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,459$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d16…7228backed Yes | 1c | 1,430$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…ea5dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,428$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x918d…aa2ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,426$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed Yes | 2c | 1,322$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2f…1a88backed Yes | 3c | 1,297$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 4c | 1,285$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 2c | 1,266$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 4c | 1,258$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf72…6378backed Yes | 5c | 1,169$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a5…5e5ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,097$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,053$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,027$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…f569backed Yes | 1c | 1,014$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed Yes | 6c | 999.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 900$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb24f…019ebacked Yes | 6c | 884.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b2…0dcfbacked Yes | 8c | 850.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…5c19backed Yes | 7c | 841.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…d1e7backed Yes | 2c | 824.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…1a90backed Yes | 2c | 795.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 2c | 789.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 5c | 785.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…7d21backed Yes | 4c | 764.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce3…966bbacked Yes | 1c | 750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 3c | 713.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 3c | 671$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 2c | 670.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 2c | 649.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 4c | 630.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 62 | 9.7%6 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08eb…9ca4backed Yes | 8c | 619.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…21b4backed Yes | 3c | 618.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 7?this page
- Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 22?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 15?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 18?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 21?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 6?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.