Middle East · resolved market
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb24aa72235c46c88613dca167f2e324aeb03e73f556fda680bbbdb815a5c40d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,372,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,391,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,372,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 602 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 11c | 165,647$18,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,545.12 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…566dbacked Yes | 1c | 82,771$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.27 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc266…2f2fbacked Yes | 11c | 75,865$8,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,679.99 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 6c | 75,012$4,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,729.41 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 8c | 69,367$5,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,751.66 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 3c | 55,852$1,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,777.96 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 14c | 55,000$7,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,669.98 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 25c | 50,227$12,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,703.98 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 73c | 49,231$35,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,483.81 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 14c | 45,823$6,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,571.52 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5b…26e2backed Yes | 6c | 42,713$2,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,376.11 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…ead3backed Yes | 4c | 40,074$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…4e1ebacked Yes | 25c | 37,561$9,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,375.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1f…7828backed Yes | 2c | 36,364$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 12c | 32,550$3,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,921.17 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 11c | 30,945$3,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,288.45 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 7c | 29,418$2,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,167.01 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes | 7c | 28,234$2,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,115.2 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed Yes | 28c | 27,954$7,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,786.45 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 12c | 27,471$3,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,240.57 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…a549backed Yes | 11c | 27,190$3,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,001 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0851…06d3backed Yes | 11c | 24,147$2,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,634 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…51ffbacked Yes | 3c | 22,388$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +247.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 4c | 21,675$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.49 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa88a…3e8cbacked Yes | 2c | 21,348$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.64 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…a4dfbacked Yes | 12c | 20,570$2,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,468.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b66…3a93backed Yes | 9c | 20,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +251.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 3c | 17,988$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b3…7552backed Yes | 3c | 17,532$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 12cpaid | +484.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 7c | 17,138$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.71 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes | 16c | 16,522$2,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,675.17 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…94b2backed Yes | 22c | 16,199$3,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,571.48 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 7c | 15,247$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.16 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 76c | 15,096$11,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,633.45 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 9c | 14,657$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.13 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 6c | 14,229$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.1 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4504…dc5fbacked Yes | 12c | 14,048$1,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,622 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 13c | 14,025$1,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.76 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a90…03b5backed Yes | 3c | 13,744$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.58 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +262.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 5c | 13,558$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.58 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked Yes | 15c | 12,720$1,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,928.34 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes | 22c | 12,602$2,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,769.31 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 1c | 11,684$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.62 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 6c | 11,645$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.15 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…5349backed Yes | 2c | 11,434$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 9c | 11,406$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.55 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc9…c790backed Yes | 10c | 11,183$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.31 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 10c | 11,020$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.88 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed Yes | 14c | 10,765$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabb3…0519backed Yes | 25c | 10,500$2,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,629.94 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 2cpaid | +428.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c1…39e2backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.76 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 11c | 9,998$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.12 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe05…cbb2backed Yes | 9c | 9,905$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…2d87backed Yes | 11c | 8,650$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.09 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +259.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 14c | 8,615$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.59 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2771…d030backed Yes | 15c | 8,528$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 2c | 8,500$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 10c | 8,395$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.54 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes | 9c | 8,367$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x333a…bd76backed Yes | 3c | 8,164$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.28 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +514.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 14c | 7,546$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.19 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…2bcfbacked Yes | 3c | 7,374$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2baa…647abacked Yes | 8c | 7,100$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +148.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 10c | 7,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 7c | 6,941$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.52 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb1…3c7abacked Yes | 3c | 6,826$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 8c | 6,666$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.6 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes | 12c | 6,567$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.89 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 80c | 6,275$5,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.34 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 12c | 6,187$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.26 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 26c | 6,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe823…2a61backed Yes | 14c | 5,714$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 10c | 5,374$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.23 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 16c | 5,345$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.62 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 11c | 5,344$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.84 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 16c | 5,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 12c | 4,899$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.44 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 10c | 4,795$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.12 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…fccbbacked Yes | 24c | 4,732$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.49 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf7…fa07backed Yes | 15c | 4,667$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 7c | 4,616$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.96 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 8c | 4,548$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.95 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09dc…1ba0backed Yes | 10c | 4,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 20c | 4,446$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.38 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Yes | 12c | 4,305$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.26 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 20c | 4,276$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.64 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 7c | 4,200$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.6 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf20a…642fbacked Yes | 27c | 4,074$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 7c | 4,000$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.33 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8311…79f9backed Yes | 10c | 3,950$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f6…23babacked Yes | 27c | 3,844$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…7e46backed Yes | 13c | 3,708$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab0b…4cd6backed Yes | 10c | 3,614$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…af31backed Yes | 15c | 3,600$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.69 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a3…6cd7backed Yes | 3c | 3,432$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked Yes | 12c | 3,400$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 7c | 3,382$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.86 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 15?this page
- Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 22?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 18?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 21?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 6?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 7?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.