TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7c5b…26e2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
153
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 64 out of 100 (+0.13 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 64 out of 100; worst Middle East at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Dota2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT5046%23 W · 27 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 50 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.16
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Nigma Galaxy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.25
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Nigma Galaxy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$262.81
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$108.89
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$113.2
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$299.9
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$84
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$239.23
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Elimination Roundbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$390
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winnerbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$551Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$551.15
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winnerbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+256.8%+$730.52
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$714Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$714.29
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$492Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+87.8%+$431.93
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Xtreme Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$900
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Xtreme Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,206Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,206.46
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$406Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$439.58
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Xtreme Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,110Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,110
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Aurora - Game 2 Winnerbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$599.86
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Vici Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.52
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Vici Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$725Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$725.07
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$230
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Vici Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$530
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winnerbacked Vici Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$540Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$1,459.98
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$550
Showing 25 of 50 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3857.9%22 W · 16 L+8.0wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+54.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$5,900Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$4,100
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$550
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$2,606Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+484.3%+$12,620.31
Harry Kane: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$800
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$3,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,700
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$8,741Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,741.32
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,988Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,987.5
Lionel Messi: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$329.97
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$5,597Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+34.1%+$1,906.95
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$3,838Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,837.5
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$4,299Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+71.8%+$3,088.59
Harry Kane: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,525Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,525
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,675Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+79.1%+$1,325
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+150%+$3,000
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+150%+$1,200
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Egypt?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$111.32
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$970Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$4,738.17
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$670Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$670
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,268Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+136.5%+$1,731.69
Harry Kane: 3+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.45
England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$540
Harry Kane: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$810
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT3435.3%12 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+42.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
CS2 — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$296.21
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$215
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs G2 - Map 2 Winnerbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$880Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+70.5%+$619.99
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,454Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+1,347.7%+$19,596
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$860Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$859.99
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$470
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$344Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$344.37
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+185.6%+$649.83
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.04
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.58
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winnerbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$535Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$535.24
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$354Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$353.99
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winnerbacked B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.1
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winnerbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+300%+$69.35
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winnerbacked paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$225.15
Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.36
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winnerbacked BIG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$134.66
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winnerbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$134.77
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winnerbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$57.5
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$315Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$434.99
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winnerbacked paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+399.5%+$293.55
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$225
Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.6
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.44
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.28
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-56.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$2,060Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,060.49
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+525%+$420
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$273.85
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$270
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.05
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$2,463Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,462.82
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,539Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,538.94
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$420.09
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$640Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$639.99
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.07
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$561Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$561.27
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$818Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$818
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$930Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$930
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$430Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$429.97
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$5,839Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+325.4%+$19,004.14
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$4,171Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,170.64
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$2,011Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,011.35
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,369Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,369.06
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.49
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$2,376Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,376.11
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$5,739Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,738.74
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.44
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.7
All 24 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+929.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$301Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+929.9%+$2,799
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+446.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$393Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+446.3%+$1,753.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$94
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$561Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+78.2%+$438.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,187Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,187.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$705Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$705
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.