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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FURIAof FURIA, 9z
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,151,340
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,327,188

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,151,340 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,971 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c33…0563backed FURIA71c170,414$120,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,023.7727256.6%154 W · 118 L+20.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5966…f804backed FURIA74c150,000$111,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,5003857.9%22 W · 16 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+28%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked 9z27c120,000$32,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,349.9777957.4%447 W · 332 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed FURIA73c99,999$72,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,999.7121853.2%116 W · 102 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed 9z37c91,185$33,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,650.6441749.9%208 W · 209 L+20.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89dd…f662backed 9z34c80,719$27,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,619.046940.6%28 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked FURIA48c66,871$32,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,773.137040%28 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked 9z26c60,000$15,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,599.9214050.7%71 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked FURIA71c56,000$39,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,379.9119757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf886…2620backed FURIA69c50,085$34,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,698.5110359.2%61 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked FURIA75c48,487$36,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,036.1822468.8%154 W · 70 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked 9z27c46,296$12,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,50014845.3%67 W · 81 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cc1…1bb9backed 9z46c42,598$19,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,652.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked 9z52c40,000$20,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,80026454.9%145 W · 119 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked FURIA73c40,000$29,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,799.9738358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked 9z52c40,000$20,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,799.8778052.8%412 W · 368 L+28.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked 9z26c40,000$10,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,399.915245.4%69 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47b3…039cbacked FURIA62c39,664$24,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,952.325742.1%24 W · 33 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed 9z34c37,871$12,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,716.612,41245.4%1,095 W · 1,317 L-62.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked FURIA74c37,178$27,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,666.25,13755%2,826 W · 2,311 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed 9z27c36,423$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00010361.2%63 W · 40 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked FURIA75c36,000$27,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,00022754.6%124 W · 103 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4e1…34a5backed 9z27c35,653$9,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,626.351346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked 9z52c35,085$18,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,243.9521854.6%119 W · 99 L+10.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked FURIA62c35,060$21,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,466.3220248.5%98 W · 104 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe40e…9770backed 9z26c35,000$9,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,099.9417951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked 9z29c32,706$9,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,628.465751.9%341 W · 316 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe111…685abacked 9z35c31,815$10,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,976.4217540%70 W · 105 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed 9z39c28,887$11,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,40039346.8%184 W · 209 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed 9z29c22,947$6,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,647.6720745.9%95 W · 112 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed FURIA71c22,775$16,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,604.382,67451.9%1,388 W · 1,286 L+25.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked FURIA67c22,453$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,453.3216943.8%74 W · 95 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed 9z46c22,222$10,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,222.182543%355 W · 470 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed FURIA38c21,500$8,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,410.6730640.2%123 W · 183 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed 9z27c21,316$5,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,755.198744.8%39 W · 48 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c2…23adbacked 9z49c20,694$10,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,111.089147.3%43 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf268…ecf6backed 9z26c20,534$5,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,420.127851.3%40 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1af6…25afbacked 9z27c20,009$5,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,402.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed 9z25c20,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00033343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked 9z26c20,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.9221251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked 9z27c18,519$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0007646.1%35 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed FURIA75c17,423$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,422.8250754%274 W · 233 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed FURIA72c16,873$12,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,724.3923455.6%130 W · 104 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked 9z28c16,574$4,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,681.3615050.7%76 W · 74 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc84…04b2backed FURIA74c16,073$11,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,178.985444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5257…3e2abacked FURIA73c15,400$11,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,157.983250%16 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed 9z25c15,279$3,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,862.614647.3%69 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed FURIA48c14,390$6,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,482.81963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+31.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed 9z31c13,838$4,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,289.7818943.4%82 W · 107 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49ac…2f1ebacked FURIA74c13,341$9,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,468.7427951.3%143 W · 136 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b6…2fefbacked FURIA75c13,333$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,333.331050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed FURIA47c13,333$6,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,066.4467041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed 9z27c12,919$3,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,483.082,69130.7%826 W · 1,865 L-110.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83b3…b3a2backed 9z39c12,318$4,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,861.4618547%87 W · 98 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa39…bb64backed 9z26c12,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1204151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked FURIA48c12,000$5,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,239.9836152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked 9z35c11,596$4,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,058.627658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16d3…7c23backed FURIA73c11,130$8,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,005.22560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed FURIA74c11,000$8,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8603351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e8a…5f49backed 9z23c10,786$2,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,493.9410150.5%51 W · 50 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xce80…08edbacked FURIA68c10,749$7,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,473.1411947.1%56 W · 63 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x039f…80cfbacked 9z27c10,444$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,820944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe59c…4da7backed FURIA75c10,442$7,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,610.4415264.5%98 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked FURIA48c10,417$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,416.674731.9%15 W · 32 L-7.0wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-40.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4cfd…5c91backed 9z29c10,400$2,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,973.9912627%34 W · 92 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed FURIA74c10,385$7,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,705.7713345.1%60 W · 73 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed FURIA52c10,199$5,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,887.9917937.4%67 W · 112 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x86df…7d27backed 9z27c10,012$2,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,703.320447.5%97 W · 107 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed 9z26c10,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60037946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13b8…d1afbacked FURIA48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2002030%6 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked FURIA73c10,000$7,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.9619651%100 W · 96 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21d6…86fdbacked FURIA48c9,910$4,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,153.25056%28 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdafe…c5b5backed FURIA35c9,427$3,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,133.762339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc57f…1746backed 9z25c9,406$2,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,351.56352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed FURIA73c9,400$6,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,537.9723848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…30afbacked FURIA48c8,924$4,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,640.58683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+32.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed 9z51c8,802$4,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,485.5365052.6%342 W · 308 L+25.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x606d…1aafbacked FURIA66c8,676$5,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,949.8513065.4%85 W · 45 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f9…1fb2backed 9z30c8,647$2,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,612.443447.1%16 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed FURIA65c8,537$5,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,987.8911439.5%45 W · 69 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d9…1142backed 9z36c8,397$2,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,985.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe100…4d41backed 9z33c8,337$2,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,780.63837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked 9z27c8,268$2,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,232.361,04252.5%547 W · 495 L+29.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed 9z37c8,138$3,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,040.9480740.3%325 W · 482 L-3.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed FURIA48c8,007$3,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,163.6621347.9%102 W · 111 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cb4…00eabacked 9z25c8,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004957.1%28 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked FURIA74c7,822$5,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,033.6225461.4%156 W · 98 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked 9z21c7,501$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,543.6722421.9%49 W · 175 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-46%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed FURIA74c7,500$5,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,95019960.3%120 W · 79 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-7.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked 9z31c7,500$2,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,32522625.7%58 W · 168 L+0.8wins0.00per pick25cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed FURIA65c7,283$4,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,551.876150.7%386 W · 375 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed 9z45c7,209$3,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,224.132,58941.2%1,066 W · 1,523 L-123.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked 9z51c7,169$3,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,656.1883652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18f0…3d5ebacked 9z17c7,123$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.024641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed 9z45c6,971$3,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,159.385,40031.5%1,699 W · 3,701 L-393.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed FURIA66c6,970$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,369.71,20554.5%657 W · 548 L-37.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked FURIA74c6,744$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.9425751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8261…a3f1backed FURIA63c6,538$4,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,447.462441.7%10 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick59cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked 9z4c6,500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28032832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed FURIA45c6,488$2,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,559.1117240.7%70 W · 102 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.