Commodities · resolved market
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffe381a80c1e36f9e0b03a542aa8fe56e74a67d2566a4e29396d4427aa4244c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,940,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,374,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,940,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 932 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 0c | 813,704$3,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,051.24 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 7c | 419,692$27,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,633.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…21cdbacked Yes | 17c | 407,861$70,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70,175.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 6c | 331,641$20,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,699.47 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 9c | 288,335$25,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,899.62 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes | 2c | 219,943$4,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,640 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…be4fbacked Yes | 10c | 193,405$19,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,747 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 13c | 177,154$22,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,876.84 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 9c | 176,701$15,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,446.7 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…bc1ebacked Yes | 6c | 176,420$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d7…0278backed Yes | 1c | 176,280$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 5c | 150,675$7,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,570.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd1…3ad6backed Yes | 5c | 150,411$7,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,509.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb129…34bfbacked Yes | 6c | 134,114$7,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,503.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked Yes | 6c | 120,701$7,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,241.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…2458backed Yes | 5c | 117,920$5,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,517.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…01debacked Yes | 6c | 112,503$7,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,031.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…3068backed Yes | 4c | 111,855$4,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,652.89 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed Yes | 4c | 108,940$4,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,391.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 6c | 105,490$6,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,227.16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 5c | 104,347$5,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,158.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 2c | 101,863$1,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,818.73 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc05…013abacked Yes | 19c | 101,129$18,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,757.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6a…275dbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa185…d893backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 5c | 94,921$5,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,081.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a4…097fbacked Yes | 11c | 94,755$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed Yes | 11c | 85,150$9,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,629.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 83,207$4,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,275.03 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 6c | 80,000$4,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,541.99 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…8178backed Yes | 15c | 67,869$10,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,459.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe2…0b8fbacked Yes | 0c | 66,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 2c | 66,173$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.7 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 15c | 65,000$9,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,739.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…b91cbacked Yes | 12c | 61,521$7,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,117.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 8c | 61,398$4,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,732.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd57…1cf2backed Yes | 0c | 60,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes | 4c | 59,082$2,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,470.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…ead3backed Yes | 2c | 54,516$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…64d9backed Yes | 6c | 53,991$3,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,186 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 5c | 50,261$2,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,610.59 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8acb…baebbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 1c | 50,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa5…e277backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…76e6backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x319a…9f47backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bc…4e41backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…d3f0backed Yes | 7c | 45,458$3,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,014.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…5a51backed Yes | 18c | 45,421$8,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,121 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 3c | 43,484$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.16 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed Yes | 16c | 41,113$6,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,510 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…1650backed Yes | 4c | 40,192$1,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f32…b501backed Yes | 1c | 40,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 7c | 39,724$2,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,656 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbd…784abacked Yes | 8c | 39,379$3,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,156.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 7c | 38,138$2,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,651 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes | 4c | 33,875$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 7c | 32,590$2,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,431.39 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 5c | 31,674$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.14 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…1abbbacked Yes | 9c | 30,657$2,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,753 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18fb…2f17backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 19c | 30,000$5,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,699.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed Yes | 18c | 29,200$5,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,256.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…94d0backed Yes | 16c | 28,545$4,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,582 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a39…b87fbacked Yes | 5c | 28,481$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…8720backed Yes | 7c | 27,656$1,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,825.96 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a2…b04dbacked Yes | 5c | 27,642$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…65abbacked Yes | 3c | 27,111$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1616…896cbacked Yes | 9c | 26,583$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,519.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…d424backed Yes | 14c | 26,288$3,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,705 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…b0febacked Yes | 1c | 26,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ce…e196backed Yes | 8c | 25,374$2,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037.91 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…7b9cbacked Yes | 6c | 25,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca82…e1f2backed Yes | 4c | 24,262$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…6906backed Yes | 0c | 23,523$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 0c | 23,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…53abbacked Yes | 5c | 20,798$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 8c | 20,638$1,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,731 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf78…a054backed Yes | 10c | 20,000$2,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,092 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…4b65backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0537backed Yes | 16c | 20,000$3,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,127.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 8c | 20,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 2c | 19,606$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.03 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -7.1wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 11c | 19,216$2,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132.78 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 15c | 19,148$2,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,935.27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 19c | 17,653$3,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,338.04 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…f2c1backed Yes | 1c | 17,646$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6f…1dfebacked Yes | 9c | 17,575$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Yes | 9c | 17,276$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 17c | 17,100$2,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,821.5 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8e…9883backed Yes | 21c | 16,882$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe090…e98abacked Yes | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x621e…6510backed Yes | 6c | 16,615$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…db51backed Yes | 0c | 16,580$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 11c | 16,519$1,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,870.68 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 19c | 16,407$3,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,117.42 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 3c | 16,323$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.89 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…7306backed Yes | 3c | 16,293$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.43 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…3239backed Yes | 0c | 15,586$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 18c | 15,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.