TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf3a4…097f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
125
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NBA, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 58 out of 100; worst Commodities at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT10045%45 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 100 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,737Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+681.1%+$11,827.72
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$7,206Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+94.5%+$6,811.47
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$25,793Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$25,793.34
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$23,847Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+34.3%+$8,179.6
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$2,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,500
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$16,500
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$9,887Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+66.1%+$6,537.82
Erling Haaland: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$3,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,500
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$3,871Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+74.4%+$2,881.62
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Belgium?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+193%+$1,929.75
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$18,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+64.4%+$11,590.15
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$929Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+112.6%+$1,045.88
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Morocco?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,500
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Morocco?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,500
France vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$9,487Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$9,486.71
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Colombia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,000
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$4,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,000
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,690Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,690
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+127.9%+$28,776.92
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Egypt?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,950Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,949.97
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$5,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,000
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$3,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$6,794.12
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Belgium?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,000
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$4,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,000
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Belgium?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$700
Showing 25 of 100 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick39cpaid+62.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$5,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+601.7%+$30,083.24
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,000
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$5,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,300
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$2,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$4,444.44
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+204.6%+$4,091.31
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$10,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$13,255.81
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$960Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$959.71
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,000
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$5,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+45.9%+$2,297.01
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$796Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$467.75
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$6,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,800
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$3,922Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+59.9%+$2,350.69
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$4,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$1,063.29
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$724.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,000
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,279Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$1,278.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$114,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$114,000
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Conor McGregor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,500
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.