Commodities · resolved market
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x348cd9adf4f6855f58bd9c6dbf9ff251c4142ef77233a5dc95c65b4b61cd2187
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,111,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,120,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,111,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 9,396 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 2,621,848$2,064,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557,231.77 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 13c | 1,173,110$154,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154,726.54 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 2c | 1,034,401$21,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,192.17 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 26c | 918,081$237,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237,299.62 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 16c | 871,702$136,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136,029.66 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f3d3backed No | 70c | 653,593$454,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199,234.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 26c | 525,169$135,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135,414.3 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 44c | 499,369$218,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218,414.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 11c | 479,200$53,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,933.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 12c | 465,391$55,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,363.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 13c | 447,825$57,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,406.18 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 14c | 391,430$56,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,019.76 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…11d7backed No | 59c | 382,209$226,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155,634.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 11c | 366,964$40,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,868.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f75…af7ebacked Yes | 36c | 347,191$126,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126,681 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 20c | 325,138$65,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,222.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d3…d640backed Yes | 37c | 312,914$116,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116,613.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed No | 47c | 305,011$142,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162,100.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 15c | 302,724$45,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,439.52 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 72c | 297,265$212,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84,619.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 13c | 296,297$38,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,310.38 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed No | 71c | 269,201$190,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78,712.31 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…cabbbacked Yes | 15c | 226,078$32,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,850 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf661…2259backed No | 76c | 218,500$165,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,311.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 10c | 213,085$21,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,078.69 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 35c | 212,327$74,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74,988.85 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 18c | 198,011$34,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,678.77 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…d6e2backed Yes | 8c | 195,019$15,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,969 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 40c | 191,483$76,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76,670.07 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 35c | 185,907$64,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64,990.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 36c | 170,585$62,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62,202.49 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb129…34bfbacked Yes | 44c | 166,868$72,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72,729.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 33c | 165,775$53,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,968.39 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…dad9backed Yes | 37c | 152,632$57,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,193.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 34c | 152,033$52,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,273.69 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes | 12c | 150,526$18,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,147.49 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 15c | 147,949$21,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,903.63 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 21c | 143,938$30,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,421.15 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…5c91backed Yes | 40c | 137,349$54,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,432.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 17c | 135,618$23,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,491.51 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 8c | 127,509$10,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,652.12 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a2…b04dbacked Yes | 7c | 126,010$8,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,292.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 21c | 121,012$24,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,872.23 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 5c | 119,624$6,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,030.55 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…6deabacked No | 46c | 112,850$52,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,483.89 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +137.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 11c | 112,198$11,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,838.79 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 30c | 111,081$33,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,509.4 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 23c | 109,985$25,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,347.48 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 18c | 105,786$19,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,497.38 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 6c | 105,302$6,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,660.51 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 31c | 103,983$32,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,675.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…e17ebacked Yes | 26c | 103,301$26,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,996.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 47c | 100,305$47,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,390.57 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…5c04backed Yes | 1c | 100,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 24c | 97,500$22,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,966.8 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 15c | 88,264$13,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,598.77 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca82…e1f2backed Yes | 22c | 85,409$18,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,724 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 7c | 81,927$5,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,586.51 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…9281backed Yes | 9c | 81,369$6,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,921.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…d177backed No | 76c | 80,691$61,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,578.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 12c | 78,883$9,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,171.61 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 30c | 78,064$23,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,236.71 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 74c | 77,011$56,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,310.28 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 8c | 74,732$5,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,818.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…79fbbacked Yes | 9c | 74,403$6,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,806.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed Yes | 1c | 74,390$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.35 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 24c | 71,343$17,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,381.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…ad00backed No | 76c | 70,602$53,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,827.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…c4f3backed No | 65c | 70,000$45,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,246.25 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 15c | 69,319$10,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,374.42 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 10c | 68,908$6,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,928.94 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fea1backed Yes | 32c | 68,122$21,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,789.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a3…378dbacked Yes | 14c | 68,094$9,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,764.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a16…33dbbacked Yes | 27c | 68,015$18,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,364 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 45c | 67,461$30,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,038.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 13c | 67,187$8,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,433.28 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ac…448abacked Yes | 13c | 65,977$8,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,596.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c1…39e2backed No | 61c | 65,509$39,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,794.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…f4f4backed No | 73c | 64,857$47,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,489.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked No | 72c | 64,000$45,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,109.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaa…c521backed Yes | 49c | 61,218$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed Yes | 49c | 60,666$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,000 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 63c | 59,683$37,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,200.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…20fbbacked No | 77c | 58,542$45,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,367.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 6c | 58,129$3,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,521.53 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 8c | 56,793$4,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,534.45 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed No | 74c | 56,744$42,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,540.79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 10c | 55,314$5,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,552.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 7c | 55,230$4,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,139.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…1650backed Yes | 38c | 54,979$20,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,939.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4c…bc78backed No | 67c | 54,066$36,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,803.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes | 34c | 51,629$17,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,605.41 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…03e6backed Yes | 22c | 51,086$11,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,369.59 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed Yes | 58c | 50,000$29,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 66c | 49,524$32,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,781.29 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 6c | 49,111$2,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,941 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 5c | 48,317$2,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,617.32 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49eb…cf37backed Yes | 14c | 48,182$6,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,742.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 49c | 47,792$23,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,548.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 21c | 44,811$9,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,465.64 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.