TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Spurs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Knicks, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,832,437
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,106,729

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,832,437 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 4,926 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6211…b89ebacked Spurs67c1,372,101$919,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919,307.458148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa380…21ffbacked Knicks32c1,097,042$354,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742,988.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+93.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Knicks32c711,109$227,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483,55472648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Spurs66c653,886$431,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431,564.65154.9%28 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Spurs59c583,106$342,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342,056.8264948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Knicks32c564,184$182,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381,828.0516841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6db5…e279backed Knicks63c466,421$294,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171,767.925354.7%29 W · 24 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Knicks40c399,586$158,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241,547.5118651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Spurs65c373,916$241,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,883.376445.3%29 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Spurs68c340,000$231,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,199.9960351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad9c…9889backed Knicks33c331,101$110,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220,752.05757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+53.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b7…5ee3backed Knicks33c325,219$107,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217,411.911333.6%38 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Spurs67c303,029$203,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203,029.5815644.9%70 W · 86 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb6d…387fbacked Knicks33c290,786$95,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194,826.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Knicks33c287,357$94,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192,529.1914533.1%48 W · 97 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Knicks33c266,668$88,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178,667.579745.4%44 W · 53 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Spurs55c215,225$118,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118,479.0810944%48 W · 61 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72d8…5213backed Spurs67c211,200$141,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,5042240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b3f…3446backed Knicks33c207,007$68,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138,694.951457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Spurs60c200,614$120,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120,986.6839842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Spurs68c200,000$136,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136,0003844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc71…d033backed Knicks34c200,000$68,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131,999.83560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Knicks32c199,999$64,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135,199.365350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed Knicks29c159,455$46,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112,689.831369.2%9 W · 4 L+4.9wins+0.38per pick31cpaid+105.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Spurs67c155,000$103,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103,8501,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f5…5e8abacked Spurs68c150,000$102,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,0003770.3%26 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9b…a5ebbacked Spurs55c150,000$82,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82,50013544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Knicks33c150,000$49,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,199.9317553.7%94 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3496…8fc4backed Spurs36c140,000$50,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,350.771040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Spurs66c138,055$91,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91,033.6285742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Spurs67c134,322$90,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90,118.2637355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4900…4a72backed Spurs75c126,820$95,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95,101.155940.7%24 W · 35 L-12.5wins-0.21per pick62cpaid-41.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Spurs67c125,000$84,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,20015952.8%84 W · 75 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161e…6ef0backed Knicks59c116,717$68,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,357.825664.3%36 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Knicks41c112,619$46,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,256.9825925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Spurs40c111,955$44,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,508.791,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Spurs67c101,638$68,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,097.547848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Knicks33c99,405$32,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,601.6124831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Knicks47c95,057$45,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,920.516919.5%33 W · 136 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Knicks36c92,434$33,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,383.7262144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32e…441dbacked Knicks53c91,586$48,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,478.42650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Spurs67c90,000$60,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,1001,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x333d…134ebacked Knicks34c80,552$27,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,164.32742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Spurs51c75,063$38,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,576.661,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c28…9e49backed Knicks32c75,027$23,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,314.861942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb87b…3626backed Spurs22c74,550$16,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,313.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+142.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Spurs68c73,529$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,0009725.8%25 W · 72 L-9.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-34.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x005c…8cc2backed Knicks67c71,345$47,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,379.14650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Spurs68c69,782$47,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,451.7631644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x890e…db10backed Knicks35c68,900$24,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,785728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95f6…0b51backed Knicks34c68,868$23,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,452.69742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Spurs66c67,464$44,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,650.111,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…708bbacked Knicks33c65,269$21,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,730.055100%5 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+194.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Spurs66c65,000$42,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,9002045%9 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed Spurs68c63,345$43,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,074.64860.4%29 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba62…b19bbacked Knicks33c61,292$20,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,065.481741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed Spurs68c58,302$39,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,645.5210860.2%65 W · 43 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+109.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Knicks32c56,230$18,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,173.8236023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Spurs61c55,644$33,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,692.013467.6%23 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+23.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa89e…fb60backed Knicks73c53,041$38,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,321.085379.2%42 W · 11 L+6.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+15.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0159…db47backed Spurs0c52,067$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210614.9%3 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bff…fc26backed Knicks33c50,000$16,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,5003240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Knicks34c49,999$17,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,999.2914244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Knicks35c48,287$17,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,262.4120454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84b8…1193backed Knicks34c48,235$16,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,835.134942.7%149 W · 200 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b06…fbf1backed Spurs67c46,893$31,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,418.442254.5%12 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe458…3436backed Spurs68c46,721$31,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,770.061546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Knicks33c45,000$14,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,149.8510244.1%45 W · 57 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc30e…15a7backed Spurs12c41,250$4,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,934.27650%3 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+136.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Knicks59c40,000$23,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,399.9428056.8%159 W · 121 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9896…a925backed Spurs55c38,018$20,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,910.07650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+226.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb13…37cdbacked Knicks40c36,987$14,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,152.151947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8660…93edbacked Spurs62c36,298$22,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,602.78520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-57.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xebc2…c742backed Knicks32c33,999$10,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,105.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+161.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b58…c9c8backed Knicks36c30,727$10,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,799.341376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.6wins+0.27per pick50cpaid+72%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3460…c7aebacked Spurs59c30,612$17,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,919.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60cc…ff9bbacked Knicks33c30,606$10,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,506.061442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbab…cad4backed Knicks33c30,303$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,303.031241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick27cpaid-2.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Spurs70c30,000$21,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,999.9910248%49 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f41…8f27backed Spurs67c30,000$20,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,099.95850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Knicks33c30,000$9,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,049.8617147.4%81 W · 90 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Spurs56c29,632$16,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,728.5755251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb473…2945backed Knicks42c29,628$12,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,218.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Spurs34c29,454$10,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,059.4417251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf689…9d83backed Spurs68c29,412$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,0001747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x803e…2059backed Spurs66c27,600$18,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,2161942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e92…1f13backed Knicks31c26,833$8,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,412.9475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+156.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb27…bce3backed Spurs67c26,100$17,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,561.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Knicks33c25,595$8,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,216.6862347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Knicks33c25,055$8,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,700.9747028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Spurs68c25,000$17,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,00034456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Spurs68c25,000$17,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,00048352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Knicks45c25,000$11,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,75016547.3%78 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+56.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Knicks63c24,145$15,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,948.0626753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8c…1556backed Knicks34c24,055$8,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,876.615646.4%26 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4458…1be5backed Spurs16c23,367$3,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,652.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4718…e2e8backed Knicks33c23,230$7,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,564.31457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+126.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Spurs35c23,108$8,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,100.7293148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef27…381bbacked Knicks46c21,739$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,739.138452.4%44 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x76dc…61f4backed Knicks33c21,212$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,212.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 94. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.