TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,633
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,146

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,633 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde04…fa37backed Under17c1,541$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.242,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under8c1,309$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7442842.5%182 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under23c1,051$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.5671449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Under22c903.15$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.71,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Under8c902.57$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3221848.2%105 W · 113 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6303…9556backed Over78c805.13$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.1318853.2%100 W · 88 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under23c784.38$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.411,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Under11c733.56$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.691,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over78c727.18$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.4825352.6%133 W · 120 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Under16c720.98$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.3611145.9%51 W · 60 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over77c600$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.618,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under13c598.06$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2553842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under9c510.65$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6468838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under23c271.37$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.125954.4%141 W · 118 L+34.1wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+68.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under18c243$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.541,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under11c235.45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5930842.9%132 W · 176 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x940c…b006backed Under22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Under22c207.5$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.654047.5%19 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Under21c203$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6312450.8%63 W · 61 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under21c199.64$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.351,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Under12c198.72$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4522753.3%121 W · 106 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cc9…625cbacked Over80c187.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Under22c179$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1814049.3%69 W · 71 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…7ca4backed Over79c168.35$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Over77c160$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4118445.7%84 W · 100 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Over77c153.12$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2226048.1%125 W · 135 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7712…75dbbacked Over80c93.75$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3088…2391backed Under22c86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.723256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over77c83.34$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1716048.8%78 W · 82 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under21c82.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.251,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9c…8927backed Under22c82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.041952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed Under22c82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.047350.7%37 W · 36 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Over78c64.94$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4225554.5%139 W · 116 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Over79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.696956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6195…388abacked Under21c58.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.395756.1%32 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Under23c56.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9212150.4%61 W · 60 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Over77c53.56$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3215759.2%93 W · 64 L+9.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under20c52.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4564948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Over77c51$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7326755.1%147 W · 120 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8b…9cd7backed Over77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-44.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Over77c45.21$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3561151.4%314 W · 297 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Over78c24.26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.345435.2%19 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed Over77c18.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1614851.4%76 W · 72 L+0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Over79c13.02$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.7331953%169 W · 150 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc392…595dbacked Over78c12.9$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.8440548.4%196 W · 209 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 94. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.