TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,730
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,097

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,730 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over78c1,380$1,081 inWon+$298.118,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under22c1,001$220 inLost-$220.161,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under20c871.79$174 inLost-$174.3671449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under2c750$18 inLost-$17.568838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under17c419.93$71 inLost-$71.4925954.4%141 W · 118 L+34.1wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+68.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Over79c360.85$285 inWon+$75.7817249.4%85 W · 87 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x952a…bdc8backed Under19c253.54$49 inLost-$48.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc8f…d0e4backed Under12c159.9$19 inLost-$19.192532%8 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick17cpaid+95.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Over80c153.12$122 inWon+$30.6226048.1%125 W · 135 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90d4…2deebacked Under12c129.45$16 inLost-$15.531643.8%7 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.26per pick18cpaid+168.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under20c82.53$17 inLost-$16.5145646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cb9…4009backed Under20c82.5$17 inLost-$16.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94f5…1d29backed Over80c27.69$22 inWon+$5.541593.3%14 W · 1 L+6.5wins+0.44per pick50cpaid+92.5%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xb8e1…9bc1backed Over80c27.05$22 inWon+$5.455152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 94. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.