TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,434
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,365

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,434 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No50c860.72$434 inWon+$426.9233049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes49c608.78$300 inLost-$3009950.5%50 W · 49 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked No51c400$204 inWon+$19624949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b90…672ebacked Yes50c350.74$175 inLost-$175.3713759.9%82 W · 55 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bcb…374bbacked Yes50c300$150 inLost-$1501656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes49c239.99$118 inLost-$117.656050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9abc…636abacked Yes49c177.16$86 inLost-$86.431844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb94…a015backed No50c140$70 inWon+$704360.5%26 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+41.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1de9…9499backed Yes49c132.65$65 inLost-$6510636.8%39 W · 67 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No49c94.87$46 inWon+$48.382,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No50c82.16$41 inWon+$41.0879650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Yes24c59.19$14 inLost-$14.230842.9%132 W · 176 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed No51c49.02$25 inWon+$24.0266046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed No52c48.18$25 inWon+$233964.1%25 W · 14 L+8.0wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+56.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x07d9…c160backed Yes50c42$21 inLost-$214553.3%24 W · 21 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+26.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No51c41.81$21 inWon+$20.553842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x740d…2362backed No51c41.51$21 inWon+$20.34650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6cf…1025backed Yes49c36.73$18 inLost-$184744.7%21 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc5b…90afbacked Yes49c31.06$15 inLost-$15.225561.8%34 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes50c30$15 inLost-$156150.8%31 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ea1…6072backed Yes51c29.51$15 inLost-$1524566.9%164 W · 81 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a03…4066backed No51c29.41$15 inWon+$14.411070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+36%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x802e…76fdbacked No76c26.31$20 inWon+$6.315887.9%51 W · 7 L+13.6wins+0.24per pick64cpaid+35.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xf56e…a853backed No76c26.31$20 inWon+$6.314393%40 W · 3 L+12.5wins+0.29per pick64cpaid+65.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xf1a3…f17bbacked No60c23.36$14 inWon+$9.41361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No53c22.13$12 inWon+$10.433356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99c8…7ea8backed No50c20$10 inWon+$10944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 94. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.