TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Knicksof Spurs, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,394
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,081

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,394 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x45b5…2d74backed Knicks51c470.82$240 inWon+$230.826543.1%28 W · 37 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Spurs54c369.56$200 inLost-$2007445.9%34 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Spurs48c282.69$136 inLost-$135.691,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Spurs48c221.33$106 inLost-$106.2412146.3%56 W · 65 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Knicks52c144.23$75 inWon+$69.234742.6%20 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Spurs49c136.6$67 inLost-$66.9410944%48 W · 61 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3839…e2eebacked Knicks52c115.96$60 inWon+$55.965455.6%30 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x226a…258abacked Knicks52c115.37$60 inWon+$55.38633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-34.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1651…470fbacked Spurs50c101.03$51 inLost-$50.73825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Knicks52c100$52 inWon+$4842740.3%172 W · 255 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Knicks50c81.03$41 inWon+$40.531,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Knicks39c39.91$16 inWon+$24.3525045.6%114 W · 136 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x251b…143cbacked Knicks52c38.46$20 inWon+$18.467859%46 W · 32 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x49d5…2b39backed Knicks52c20$10 inWon+$9.61485.7%12 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.26per pick60cpaid+54.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 94. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.