Middle East · resolved market
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4b9a52d2bb336ff9d84799b70e72e8e5f4507df881af60f3f4daeb9f541a80e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,995,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,085,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,995,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 4,307 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c80…02c3backed Yes | 71c | 770,777$550,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220,367.16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x021e…67ebbacked No | 0c | 500,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed No | 0c | 411,537$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.07 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…153dbacked No | 0c | 272,703$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.7 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4739…138cbacked No | 0c | 267,914$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 28c | 262,329$73,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73,024.76 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…3ae9backed No | 26c | 255,109$66,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,328.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked No | 0c | 220,138$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6421backed No | 2c | 206,024$3,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,409.15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 24c | 204,338$49,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,957.52 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 0c | 199,813$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.63 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked No | 0c | 195,309$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.31 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 34c | 194,509$66,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,730.94 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 37c | 190,874$70,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70,167.52 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 25c | 162,709$40,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,907.86 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf319…2ba6backed No | 0c | 160,541$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 22c | 159,047$34,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,268.36 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e4f3backed No | 0c | 157,650$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.33 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 35c | 151,767$52,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,531.52 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 23c | 141,873$32,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,081.22 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 1c | 139,918$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,602.25 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a4…aa82backed No | 1c | 134,256$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +628.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…cd02backed No | 0c | 132,933$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 24c | 114,094$27,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,276.75 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8489…c184backed Yes | 63c | 109,336$69,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,057.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 29c | 108,917$31,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,154.3 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…ae12backed Yes | 65c | 107,141$69,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,875.93 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9242…7065backed No | 0c | 105,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae8…b90abacked No | 0c | 101,817$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…de20backed No | 0c | 100,904$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…c706backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…0281backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed No | 0c | 100,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9512…a6ddbacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…89e4backed No | 29c | 100,000$29,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,999.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe04a…094fbacked No | 0c | 99,942$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc486…7b49backed No | 0c | 99,175$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 94,220$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.44 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 61c | 92,855$56,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,443.87 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…218dbacked No | 37c | 88,956$33,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,357.44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 22c | 85,333$18,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,818.81 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 34c | 85,203$28,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,841.79 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked Yes | 59c | 84,405$50,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,405.83 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 67c | 81,043$54,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,609.72 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 20c | 78,501$15,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,812.03 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 1c | 76,943$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.88 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…0e3cbacked Yes | 60c | 74,028$44,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,543.68 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +195.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 26c | 72,810$18,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,919.8 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…2458backed No | 34c | 71,959$24,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,794.71 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb10…9223backed No | 0c | 70,738$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 22c | 70,089$15,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,365.84 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 25c | 67,738$16,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,810.34 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4c…6829backed Yes | 67c | 64,437$43,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,262.24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +159.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 71c | 63,141$44,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,478.14 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Yes | 61c | 61,037$37,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,657.01 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 73c | 60,801$44,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,595.22 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 26c | 58,610$14,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,996.09 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…b774backed Yes | 69c | 58,221$39,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,240.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…797bbacked Yes | 67c | 58,026$38,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,216.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076b…354cbacked No | 0c | 57,667$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.33 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +746.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f65…1679backed No | 38c | 57,656$21,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,751.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 13c | 57,256$7,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,598.71 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae2f…db23backed Yes | 64c | 56,428$36,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,152.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7366…2818backed No | 0c | 53,845$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 34c | 52,713$18,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,170.28 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 16c | 52,131$8,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,547.66 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c83…0f55backed No | 1c | 51,506$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed No | 0c | 50,323$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf67…2b46backed No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…de25backed No | 0c | 50,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…a403backed No | 0c | 50,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 4cpaid | +224.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fd…5626backed No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7993…55b3backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…9508backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 2cpaid | +218.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 15c | 48,479$7,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,507.3 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…dd95backed Yes | 67c | 48,433$32,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,079.41 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 26c | 47,448$12,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,207.24 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b54…5e38backed Yes | 64c | 47,430$30,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,062.43 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -7.0wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 28c | 44,968$12,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,562.98 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 31c | 44,886$13,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,768.8 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 29c | 43,314$12,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,567.42 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 16c | 41,606$6,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,686.85 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 39c | 40,136$15,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,573.25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec7…35c0backed Yes | 66c | 40,000$26,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,399.97 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 16c | 40,000$6,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,479.96 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 5c | 39,925$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.97 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 35c | 38,000$13,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,400.61 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 31c | 37,880$11,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,709.72 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1398…a875backed Yes | 66c | 36,867$24,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,371.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 23c | 36,239$8,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,390.91 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 6c | 36,196$2,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,093.97 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa503…2342backed Yes | 60c | 35,440$21,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,183.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9411…63c7backed Yes | 65c | 35,000$22,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,202.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed No | 31c | 34,652$10,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,900.55 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7401…87c5backed Yes | 61c | 34,514$21,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,480.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 24c | 34,276$8,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,226.22 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 64c | 34,031$21,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,334.67 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 35c | 33,530$11,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,617.77 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed No | 21c | 33,500$6,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,998 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?this page
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes won
- US forces enter Iran by February 28?No won
- US forces enter Iran by January 31?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 14?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 1?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 3?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.