Middle East · resolved market
US forces enter Iran by March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89305cdf72009ced1765c4a10eadd82983011dbdf7b28daa466c15c20c04cd3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $921,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $877,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $921,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes | 1c | 50,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 1c | 38,593$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.62 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 1c | 36,744$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.98 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfe…496fbacked Yes | 2c | 28,402$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…ed6dbacked Yes | 1c | 25,250$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 1cpaid | +2,534.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 1c | 24,710$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.99 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…b2d8backed Yes | 1c | 20,084$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x744d…39b2backed Yes | 2c | 19,884$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72f…ac0abacked Yes | 1c | 19,471$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked Yes | 1c | 18,547$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.46 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 18,002$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5debbacked Yes | 1c | 17,502$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.48 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…49edbacked Yes | 1c | 16,669$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 1c | 13,337$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbc…9ed9backed Yes | 1c | 13,244$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.58 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 1c | 13,172$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.37 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…5ff2backed Yes | 1c | 12,847$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.85 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…3d98backed Yes | 1c | 12,583$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +1,095.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…618cbacked Yes | 1c | 12,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5681…43c1backed Yes | 1c | 11,149$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +242.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed Yes | 1c | 10,595$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.17 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 1c | 10,400$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 1c | 9,600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +10.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 3c | 7,932$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.53 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad9…861cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,654$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes | 2c | 6,377$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.94 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,062$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9f…e03bbacked Yes | 3c | 6,017$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 1c | 5,146$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 1c | 4,800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…86f3backed Yes | 5c | 4,344$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…ef28backed Yes | 1c | 4,260$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5e…a628backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 1c | 3,611$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7dc…7702backed Yes | 3c | 3,557$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd9…31bbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98f…1f3dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,290$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 3,046$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,937$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.23 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3829…3633backed Yes | 2c | 2,563$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +226.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,367$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…c0ddbacked Yes | 1c | 2,286$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a2…183fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,154$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 1c | 1,996$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…1241backed Yes | 5c | 1,945$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ae…3f78backed Yes | 1c | 1,819$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,814$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d2…1229backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173e…2d86backed Yes | 1c | 1,762$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 3c | 1,600$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,555$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a4…1d5dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,547$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…6ec3backed Yes | 1c | 1,527$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Yes | 1c | 1,527$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98f…3b8abacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 2c | 1,438$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf952…767dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,433$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb92…d813backed Yes | 1c | 1,431$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0221…35b1backed Yes | 4c | 1,389$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…052cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c8…6ef6backed Yes | 2c | 1,290$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…7cc9backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…775ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…d73fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,194$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7714…0720backed Yes | 2c | 1,106$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0670…2bf0backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb30a…250ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 4c | 1,081$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec88…5094backed Yes | 1c | 1,014$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3081…521cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,012$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5c42backed Yes | 1c | 1,002$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 4cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…3f04backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0206…9b1dbacked Yes | 2c | 999.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…9b5cbacked Yes | 4c | 982.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…f33ebacked Yes | 2c | 906$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 2c | 887.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4515…5c36backed Yes | 1c | 883.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked Yes | 2c | 872.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +158.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7905…a886backed Yes | 1c | 838.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 2c | 837.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 833$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b3…fb41backed Yes | 5c | 803.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d1…1b71backed Yes | 3c | 802.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f94…d03ebacked Yes | 2c | 800$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10f…f12fbacked Yes | 9c | 784.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 739$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 701.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb935…204bbacked Yes | 3c | 686.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bf…99d3backed Yes | 3c | 676.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…24c0backed Yes | 5c | 651.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee5…3acabacked Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc428…4738backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…fad5backed Yes | 3c | 599.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 71c | 581.44$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62d7…9679backed Yes | 8c | 577.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2787…c7a2backed Yes | 2c | 556.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31cd…47e5backed Yes | 3c | 501.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd47…dfc0backed Yes | 4c | 499.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +230.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US forces enter Iran by March 3?this page
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes won
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?Yes won
- US forces enter Iran by February 28?No won
- US forces enter Iran by January 31?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 14?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 1?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.