Middle East · resolved market
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30a892ea01a40602dd58029243f165a97ce22dbfeabf427f86d705ae650fad4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,358,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,358,942 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,626 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 3c | 226,131$6,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,902.67 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc8…1bc5backed Yes | 3c | 199,884$5,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,498.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 13c | 194,699$25,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,050.67 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0f…dcdabacked Yes | 17c | 188,590$32,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,949.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 7c | 150,339$11,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,222.65 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe61…4665backed Yes | 2c | 110,029$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…94b2backed Yes | 5c | 100,156$5,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,009 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 11c | 95,595$10,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,921.49 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 11c | 88,637$9,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,927.78 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…7938backed Yes | 4c | 87,370$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3c…e044backed Yes | 3c | 86,799$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…b281backed Yes | 5c | 78,123$3,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,998.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 13c | 73,601$9,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,789.64 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 80c | 66,425$53,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,299.33 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…d8dabacked Yes | 2c | 59,263$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f4…3144backed Yes | 21c | 57,882$12,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,317.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf568…9e93backed Yes | 7c | 56,203$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed No | 77c | 51,688$39,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,126.64 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…79b3backed Yes | 8c | 51,495$4,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,023.37 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 5c | 50,411$2,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,686.99 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 10c | 50,000$4,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,949.95 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 49,627$3,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,018.35 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 11c | 48,101$5,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,055.15 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbc…97e6backed Yes | 5c | 47,596$2,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,447.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd11…93b0backed Yes | 11c | 45,433$4,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,997.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…7306backed Yes | 2c | 44,885$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.97 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…ef38backed Yes | 6c | 44,559$2,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,673.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…3852backed Yes | 5c | 43,524$2,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,218.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…ee2cbacked Yes | 5c | 42,093$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 17c | 42,002$7,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,033.2 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…4077backed Yes | 6c | 40,886$2,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,272.89 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 3c | 40,763$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 13c | 39,831$5,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,357.03 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9f…e03bbacked Yes | 15c | 39,306$5,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,763.99 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd10f…f12fbacked Yes | 7c | 38,759$2,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,678.89 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…6a54backed Yes | 2c | 37,697$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.62 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 18c | 37,500$6,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,750 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…c80bbacked Yes | 15c | 37,459$5,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,557.35 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a21…bcf5backed Yes | 8c | 37,264$2,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,933.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb3…0519backed Yes | 12c | 36,515$4,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,268.15 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…be64backed Yes | 20c | 33,936$6,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,790 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…4268backed Yes | 13c | 33,855$4,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,559.53 | 74 | 21.6%16 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 17c | 33,818$5,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,741.1 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…b75bbacked Yes | 24c | 32,438$7,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,715.69 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 21c | 31,374$6,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,477.63 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed Yes | 7c | 31,066$2,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,076.75 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a1…2877backed Yes | 9c | 30,652$2,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,704.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…9ca2backed Yes | 3c | 28,900$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 19c | 28,392$5,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,520.22 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b41…9e41backed Yes | 3c | 27,800$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 18c | 27,000$4,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,859.99 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…91e7backed Yes | 15c | 27,000$3,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,995.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 18c | 26,824$4,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,802.45 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7905…a886backed Yes | 17c | 26,541$4,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,422.22 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked Yes | 2c | 26,006$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.54 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked No | 78c | 25,823$20,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,714.11 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed No | 79c | 25,228$19,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,243.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes | 3c | 25,152$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a33…b4c9backed Yes | 2c | 25,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed No | 78c | 25,000$19,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,400 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5823…673fbacked Yes | 20c | 24,915$4,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,997.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes | 6c | 24,810$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.29 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…5ff2backed Yes | 11c | 23,487$2,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,577.99 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 11c | 23,248$2,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,554.78 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…c16abacked Yes | 2c | 20,410$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Yes | 5c | 20,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78be…9218backed Yes | 9c | 19,604$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7587…8554backed Yes | 6c | 19,283$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…fdb3backed Yes | 10c | 19,223$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.94 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4823…9448backed Yes | 15c | 18,936$2,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,788.02 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 78c | 18,755$14,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,164.18 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 16c | 18,711$2,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,916.25 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe41d…577cbacked Yes | 8c | 18,377$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.78 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63c7…d693backed Yes | 17c | 18,014$3,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,142.11 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.28per pick | 25cpaid | +180.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e38…9042backed Yes | 18c | 18,000$3,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,152.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 22c | 17,473$3,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,789.41 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked Yes | 2c | 17,171$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.56 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b84…f773backed Yes | 9c | 16,783$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe813…1e91backed Yes | 20c | 16,566$3,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,278 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…333dbacked Yes | 20c | 16,477$3,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,347.21 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 11c | 16,192$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.4 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9864…5051backed Yes | 7c | 16,085$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ad…c8e3backed Yes | 1c | 16,000$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 5c | 15,598$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.73 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes | 17c | 15,597$2,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,674.14 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf199…ceeebacked Yes | 3c | 15,550$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 16c | 15,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.99 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…8e56backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 14,911$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43dd…d4b0backed Yes | 6c | 14,509$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d4…5d76backed Yes | 2c | 14,406$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ef…2ddabacked Yes | 3c | 14,322$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1255…fa6fbacked Yes | 7c | 14,286$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d8…2aa4backed Yes | 14c | 14,000$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 80c | 13,862$11,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,773.77 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -10.5wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 18c | 13,669$2,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,412.08 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba30…ca1cbacked Yes | 17c | 13,590$2,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,376.15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 8c | 13,492$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.04 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…1310backed Yes | 7c | 13,403$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US forces enter Iran by March 14?this page
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes won
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?Yes won
- US forces enter Iran by February 28?No won
- US forces enter Iran by January 31?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 1?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 3?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.