Middle East · resolved market
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x306d10d4a4d51b41910dbc779ca00908bd917c131541c5c42bbbc736258d2d56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,927,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,687,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,927,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 11,297 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 0c | 6,940,026$25,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,853.63 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 9c | 1,836,022$164,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164,575.37 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed Yes | 0c | 1,500,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…b824backed Yes | 14c | 1,277,287$176,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176,591.31 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…4ea5backed Yes | 0c | 1,000,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 0c | 1,000,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…32c7backed Yes | 3c | 910,270$27,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,767.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 76c | 861,525$650,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211,050.26 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…42d1backed Yes | 0c | 603,024$2,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,389.61 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…94b2backed Yes | 8c | 561,804$44,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,220.85 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 6c | 501,952$32,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,551.15 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabe…bb8abacked Yes | 0c | 500,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…0d99backed Yes | 6c | 466,860$29,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,104.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 9c | 447,282$42,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,160.75 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes | 13c | 422,477$56,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,307.17 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…c80bbacked Yes | 19c | 316,648$60,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,577.76 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…3852backed Yes | 2c | 311,821$7,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,052.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 75c | 305,065$228,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76,829.35 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25c…6430backed Yes | 15c | 301,466$44,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,878.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…ef38backed Yes | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 0c | 300,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 19c | 287,582$53,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,331.41 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 13c | 246,853$31,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,890.83 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6421backed Yes | 10c | 243,656$24,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,699.24 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 3c | 225,430$7,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,584.18 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8489…c184backed No | 73c | 211,976$154,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,746.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7446…8368backed Yes | 0c | 207,674$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.39 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 8c | 206,615$16,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,442.78 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc09d…e09fbacked No | 79c | 201,322$158,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,200.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 0c | 200,370$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa41e…30f9backed Yes | 32c | 199,117$63,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63,666.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 12c | 185,047$21,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,904.55 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…2e84backed Yes | 14c | 167,607$23,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,042.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 28c | 154,284$42,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,745.38 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…077abacked Yes | 14c | 154,217$22,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,356.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes | 9c | 150,357$13,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,317.97 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…4268backed Yes | 14c | 149,605$20,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,729.51 | 74 | 21.6%16 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 1c | 144,567$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.03 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…797bbacked No | 80c | 140,000$111,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,525.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bd15backed Yes | 1c | 127,217$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.14 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +257%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…6e51backed Yes | 2c | 121,399$2,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,587.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe685…56abbacked Yes | 0c | 119,500$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4a…f05fbacked Yes | 20c | 119,211$24,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,376.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ff…540ebacked No | 71c | 117,720$83,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,120.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd820…3b25backed Yes | 14c | 116,310$15,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,912.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed No | 77c | 108,968$83,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,324.19 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…abddbacked Yes | 3c | 107,524$3,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,468.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 14c | 106,583$14,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,503.9 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes | 2c | 105,983$2,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260.51 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…92f5backed Yes | 1c | 105,684$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 15c | 105,218$15,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,686.09 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…79e8backed Yes | 17c | 102,618$17,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,950 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 2c | 101,820$1,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,744.15 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 74c | 101,776$75,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,549.17 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f5…db45backed Yes | 1c | 101,183$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.57 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…99c9backed Yes | 17c | 101,011$17,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,609.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…b1a9backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0468…7ac6backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf435…1d00backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…a727backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 20c | 99,937$19,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,714.66 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 73c | 99,039$72,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,726.13 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…3ae9backed Yes | 17c | 98,994$16,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,828.91 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…b2b7backed Yes | 1c | 98,631$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.76 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 67c | 97,640$65,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,618.71 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 70c | 97,503$68,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,165.78 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…9b58backed Yes | 12c | 96,497$11,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,502.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a1…d6bebacked Yes | 0c | 93,000$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 1c | 91,687$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.82 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb005…e690backed Yes | 15c | 90,504$13,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,353.73 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Yes | 4c | 88,243$3,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,118.43 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe61…4665backed Yes | 24c | 86,300$20,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,495.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…1d98backed Yes | 30c | 84,726$25,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,304.1 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ad…6e72backed No | 71c | 83,982$59,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,234.57 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…2113backed Yes | 20c | 83,971$16,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,713.77 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…aeb3backed Yes | 4c | 83,271$3,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,432 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 11c | 82,834$8,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,916.4 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…5d15backed Yes | 1c | 81,877$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.76 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 7c | 81,730$5,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,886.4 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a8…ea4dbacked Yes | 1c | 80,765$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…c80dbacked Yes | 0c | 80,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 20c | 79,348$15,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,670.34 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…bc09backed Yes | 1c | 77,679$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 75c | 76,233$57,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,861.04 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63fe…0b09backed Yes | 2c | 76,066$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed Yes | 40c | 76,000$30,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,458.63 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…6424backed Yes | 34c | 75,237$25,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,680.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…d8dabacked Yes | 12c | 75,064$8,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,701.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 1c | 74,432$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb89…8803backed No | 76c | 73,651$56,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,316.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 13c | 72,863$9,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,508.7 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…8ce8backed No | 79c | 72,814$57,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,331.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 65c | 71,975$46,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,171.8 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…18e3backed Yes | 17c | 71,561$12,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,115.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd8…8e08backed Yes | 22c | 70,972$15,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,907.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 70,185$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.85 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0567…2c55backed Yes | 34c | 70,058$23,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,954.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Yes | 0c | 70,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec6…b7e5backed Yes | 24c | 69,079$16,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,535.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…ff10backed Yes | 26c | 67,592$17,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,815.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?this page
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes won
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?Yes won
- US forces enter Iran by February 28?No won
- US forces enter Iran by January 31?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 14?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 1?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 3?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.