Middle East · resolved market
US forces enter Iran by March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x128115e9d8f5144654fac057655943efef46434ca944e9733e0b09f3c9271ddf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $160,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7c3…3186backed Yes | 0c | 13,064$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +214%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d9…a783backed Yes | 3c | 11,900$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.2 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 0c | 9,988$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…d706backed Yes | 2c | 9,166$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 2c | 7,240$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.84 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…1241backed Yes | 2c | 6,219$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…86f3backed Yes | 1c | 3,443$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,219$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.74 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…f67abacked Yes | 3c | 2,878$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…72b0backed Yes | 3c | 2,860$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…62d2backed Yes | 2c | 2,457$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3829…3633backed Yes | 1c | 2,403$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +226.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,218$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c5…8874backed Yes | 5c | 2,077$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 2,039$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37da…df92backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…d982backed Yes | 1c | 1,677$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0e…e763backed Yes | 1c | 1,181$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…a915backed Yes | 32c | 1,159$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…0bf2backed Yes | 13c | 1,063$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…06f1backed Yes | 4c | 1,015$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…9b5cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked Yes | 1c | 890.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…d73fbacked Yes | 6c | 847.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…fad5backed Yes | 3c | 783.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 659.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes | 6c | 504.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…48debacked Yes | 11c | 372.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…523cbacked Yes | 3c | 299.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 4cpaid | +276.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 67c | 274.54$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…1594backed Yes | 15c | 266.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 15c | 205.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…5ff2backed Yes | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645b…893cbacked No | 79c | 192.32$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39ee…f323backed Yes | 12c | 181.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…91febacked No | 80c | 169.6$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.2wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 80c | 165.39$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2b…d0d2backed Yes | 22c | 134.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 10c | 127.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…b445backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dd…5625backed Yes | 11c | 93.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb60a…65bcbacked Yes | 54c | 92.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…7573backed Yes | 14c | 83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 52c | 68.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…017bbacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…1a32backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04d1…51afbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x183f…e330backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…45d9backed No | 80c | 12.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US forces enter Iran by March 1?this page
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes won
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?Yes won
- US forces enter Iran by February 28?No won
- US forces enter Iran by January 31?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 14?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 3?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.