Middle East · resolved market
US forces enter Iran by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x079ac7dd50c847d292eef395f2211fdb43627e94250ead0459843d14802b639b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $420,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $358,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $420,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bc9…3628backed Yes | 5c | 48,636$2,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,585.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 3c | 27,000$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…1241backed Yes | 2c | 20,500$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes | 0c | 12,600$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…437fbacked Yes | 6c | 11,992$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 10,068$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.03 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes | 5c | 10,017$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.57 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf532…c50cbacked Yes | 2c | 7,426$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.11 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4751…e334backed Yes | 3c | 7,005$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.73 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes | 3c | 6,000$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.67 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c7…d693backed Yes | 6c | 5,897$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.17 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.28per pick | 25cpaid | +180.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 1c | 5,555$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…79b3backed Yes | 4c | 4,808$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 4,805$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.05 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 5c | 4,576$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 3c | 4,540$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.49 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d9…a783backed Yes | 4c | 4,510$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 2c | 4,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 5c | 4,450$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.54 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7c…d9b6backed Yes | 5c | 4,268$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 1c | 4,003$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x739f…afb8backed Yes | 6c | 3,632$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 1c | 3,624$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 3c | 3,282$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.77 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 2,910$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.16 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,792$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,791$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.39 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 4c | 2,665$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.51 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x121d…5928backed Yes | 3c | 2,646$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 3c | 2,607$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…38c3backed Yes | 4c | 2,437$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee5…3acabacked Yes | 2c | 2,418$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e6…8984backed Yes | 2c | 2,317$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 2,308$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 2c | 2,273$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 2c | 2,257$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…be95backed Yes | 5c | 2,242$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +260.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…1c64backed Yes | 5c | 2,152$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2776…2a8cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,124$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…f849backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc7…ac54backed Yes | 5c | 1,973$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.66 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa808…6e36backed Yes | 3c | 1,680$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad1c…e178backed Yes | 9c | 1,641$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7093…0f10backed Yes | 4c | 1,492$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 7c | 1,445$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 3c | 1,325$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +6.7wins | +0.25per pick | 23cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x073c…6a81backed Yes | 8c | 1,225$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +347.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6e…8931backed Yes | 10c | 1,131$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…f68dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,077$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +837.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4857…9077backed Yes | 7c | 1,038$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x157c…2664backed Yes | 5c | 1,029$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…8a41backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 3c | 961.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa229…0b73backed Yes | 2c | 955.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f38…f2ebbacked Yes | 6c | 913.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…c68bbacked Yes | 5c | 899.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 893.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa202…9b12backed Yes | 7c | 822.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…8592backed Yes | 4c | 802.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 5c | 777$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…83dabacked Yes | 6c | 775.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dd…5625backed Yes | 5c | 722.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee0…1006backed Yes | 5c | 662.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b04…aca6backed Yes | 3c | 544.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b21…680abacked Yes | 4c | 538.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0956…d99abacked Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…3158backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 4c | 492.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 4c | 453.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 3c | 430$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…1c8cbacked Yes | 4c | 411.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…0f67backed Yes | 3c | 380.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7714…0720backed Yes | 5c | 379.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e89…41a3backed Yes | 6c | 358.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 4c | 354.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2086…3c01backed Yes | 7c | 335.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26a…c0c1backed Yes | 4c | 326.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…7a37backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed Yes | 5c | 282.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea93…5354backed Yes | 4c | 254.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9111…36a1backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…7763backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b68…a125backed Yes | 5c | 207.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3752…16c3backed Yes | 8c | 188.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…631dbacked Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 7c | 134.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US forces enter Iran by February 28?this page
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes won
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?Yes won
- US forces enter Iran by January 31?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 14?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 1?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 3?No won
- US forces enter Iran by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.