Middle East · resolved market
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4bbf7f6707c67beb736135ad32a41f6db41f8ae52d3ac4919650de9eeb94ed8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,114,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,477,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,114,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 8,897 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 5,454,128$5,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,862.13 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d75…396fbacked No | 0c | 2,400,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 46c | 2,290,739$1,064,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226,132.56 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c29…7570backed No | 0c | 1,732,370$3,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,230.54 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…5de1backed No | 0c | 1,235,789$2,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,226.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…bf7bbacked No | 0c | 1,153,188$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 0c | 1,101,343$3,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,555.56 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…90eabacked No | 1c | 1,006,930$6,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,824.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed No | 0c | 995,839$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.84 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f92…a3c3backed No | 1c | 995,079$13,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,104.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 75c | 994,461$744,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249,785.17 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd8…8e08backed No | 0c | 827,034$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 10c | 799,724$79,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720,688.98 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 2c | 794,744$18,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,995.86 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…6c15backed No | 0c | 748,581$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x925e…0f63backed No | 0c | 695,188$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 23c | 630,022$141,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488,142.93 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0567…2c55backed No | 0c | 618,500$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a4…bcafbacked No | 0c | 603,000$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 73c | 585,415$426,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159,368.54 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f5…2e8dbacked No | 5c | 547,088$25,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,753.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 52c | 518,991$270,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248,804.05 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed No | 0c | 500,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…4ea5backed No | 0c | 499,781$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 75c | 494,862$369,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125,308.73 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…e55cbacked No | 0c | 469,630$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 1c | 462,613$4,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,110.21 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked No | 0c | 455,089$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.18 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…5de9backed No | 6c | 442,685$24,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,988.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 42c | 440,083$185,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254,746.04 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked Yes | 52c | 428,901$221,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207,259.72 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e6…389dbacked No | 4c | 427,895$18,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,690.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 0c | 403,000$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed No | 0c | 393,403$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.62 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…4e28backed Yes | 42c | 390,242$162,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227,943.78 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.30per pick | 23cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 21c | 387,452$82,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304,579.01 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes | 68c | 371,846$251,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120,292.95 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37d7…712fbacked No | 5c | 353,917$17,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,880 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcf…8fd9backed No | 3c | 351,614$9,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,445.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b10…0593backed No | 0c | 332,250$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 62c | 327,860$202,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125,171.02 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 47c | 326,593$153,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172,847.43 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e29…6572backed Yes | 8c | 322,434$27,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295,252.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +493.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x010d…2b15backed No | 0c | 316,879$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa6…998abacked No | 1c | 315,589$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,041 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 10c | 308,106$31,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,413.16 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a2…3715backed No | 0c | 300,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…2b32backed No | 4c | 299,136$12,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,702.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…51b7backed No | 0c | 295,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 3c | 293,000$8,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,058 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed No | 0c | 290,351$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.28 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ce…6e30backed No | 8c | 289,488$22,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,289.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 61c | 288,942$176,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112,163.7 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7011…c6dabacked No | 6c | 274,902$15,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,957.69 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0f…9556backed No | 5c | 272,187$13,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,243.39 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 70c | 271,928$191,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80,237.94 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…b675backed No | 2c | 265,485$4,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,890.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b7…a009backed No | 0c | 262,556$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b0…23a1backed No | 4c | 260,638$10,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,500 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…7099backed No | 3c | 257,611$8,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,616.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +252%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…ed58backed No | 0c | 253,256$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ed…e1f0backed No | 0c | 252,096$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked No | 0c | 250,000$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd1…4649backed No | 0c | 249,995$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed Yes | 57c | 249,490$141,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107,992.51 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb0…6a1abacked No | 0c | 246,750$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 78c | 245,272$191,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,196.42 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 1c | 244,433$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24c…3998backed No | 0c | 244,381$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd4…43bebacked No | 3c | 238,449$7,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,139.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6646…b098backed No | 5c | 236,801$11,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,770.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc77f…1704backed No | 0c | 236,067$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 50c | 235,179$116,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118,559.03 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 70c | 234,361$164,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70,102.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 15c | 226,139$34,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191,655.07 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked No | 3c | 224,850$6,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,175.11 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc271…aa77backed No | 0c | 222,500$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…2ab0backed No | 26c | 221,553$56,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,764.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e34…c876backed Yes | 9c | 220,659$20,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200,515.56 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ad…8907backed No | 0c | 219,550$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fff…94adbacked No | 0c | 213,575$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked No | 17c | 211,486$36,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,154.87 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 10c | 210,952$20,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190,206.62 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0913…4cd0backed No | 1c | 207,870$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3314…a8c7backed No | 3c | 207,188$6,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,504.49 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 0c | 206,520$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.09 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4166…b3c7backed No | 5c | 203,648$9,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,615.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3f…7582backed No | 6c | 201,509$11,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,745.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…0356backed No | 0c | 200,000$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 78c | 197,159$154,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,622.58 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52c3…1e79backed No | 5c | 192,298$10,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,116.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed No | 9c | 191,980$17,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,909.96 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe28f…429dbacked No | 0c | 191,709$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…05bcbacked Yes | 19c | 190,823$36,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154,281.67 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cba…b9f5backed No | 42c | 188,087$78,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78,136.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a0…c047backed No | 0c | 181,871$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.3 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…f18fbacked Yes | 19c | 179,714$34,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145,293.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +140.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac5…cf2ebacked No | 0c | 178,159$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.32 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 64c | 176,385$112,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,233.14 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…44d9backed No | 0c | 175,510$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.