TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Thunder

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Spurs, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,019,822
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,540,824

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,019,822 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 4,835 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Spurs45c1,514,955$679,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835,158.0564948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Spurs53c985,452$525,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459,787.8985742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Thunder56c630,552$355,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355,609.0672648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Spurs44c550,001$241,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308,587.479745.4%44 W · 53 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Thunder57c499,999$284,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284,999.4415644.9%70 W · 86 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Thunder56c440,040$246,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246,422.5216841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cff…59dbbacked Spurs42c414,569$174,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240,450.29475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+86.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4be1…aa70backed Thunder57c413,289$235,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235,40290%0 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd959…daf7backed Spurs43c402,491$173,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228,766.75850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x966c…9b1abacked Thunder57c349,271$199,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199,084.562951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6db5…e279backed Thunder18c324,016$59,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,081.445354.7%29 W · 24 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Thunder57c318,093$182,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182,648.5314538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Thunder56c312,582$176,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176,054.631,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Thunder57c308,677$175,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175,945.895942.4%25 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Spurs48c307,847$149,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158,573.9518651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Thunder49c260,892$128,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128,252.9969848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Thunder57c235,999$133,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133,519.541,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Spurs61c183,391$111,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,389.6719388.1%170 W · 23 L+48.6wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Spurs68c178,574$122,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,332.8826753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Thunder57c164,591$94,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94,225.0925753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Thunder57c154,999$87,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,799.71,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37d3…709abacked Thunder24c151,697$36,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,492.662642.3%11 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+64.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Thunder57c140,000$79,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,799.745350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Thunder57c132,332$75,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,669.2515952.8%84 W · 75 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Spurs43c130,783$56,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,546.4416846.4%78 W · 90 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Thunder57c128,764$73,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,395.2438253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ae5…49b2backed Thunder42c125,657$53,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,137.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9896…a925backed Thunder57c124,947$71,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,219.82650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+226.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47a8…52f9backed Spurs42c119,998$50,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,599.043036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4853…fa56backed Thunder39c113,405$44,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,420.35425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Spurs41c101,636$41,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,965.475154.9%28 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7523…4c4cbacked Thunder57c100,000$57,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,00040%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Thunder56c95,816$53,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,928.2759347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d91…a5fdbacked Spurs42c87,620$36,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,819.511637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-35.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Spurs44c79,545$35,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,545.459725.8%25 W · 72 L-9.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-34.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xde7c…c933backed Thunder54c76,368$41,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,446.383221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Thunder58c75,839$43,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,986.4814857.4%85 W · 63 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Spurs43c75,000$32,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,799.8134456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x005c…8cc2backed Spurs63c74,021$47,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,021.26650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Thunder56c71,648$39,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,987.688150.6%41 W · 40 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Spurs52c71,010$37,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,825.4625925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Thunder58c70,906$41,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,125.211471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+46.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Spurs42c70,000$29,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,599.9520454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b7…5ee3backed Spurs42c70,000$29,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,599.811333.6%38 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Spurs61c68,712$42,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,553.167869.2%54 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Thunder57c67,544$38,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,499.811,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Thunder57c66,178$37,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,721.2435744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Thunder41c65,223$26,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,633.2456646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Spurs44c60,000$26,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,60020155.7%112 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f59…bdf0backed Thunder58c60,000$34,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,800333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid+11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28a7…0792backed Thunder57c57,784$32,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,937.09450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Spurs49c50,882$24,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,898.96651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Thunder27c50,000$13,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,50012529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee17…6ea1backed Spurs43c50,000$21,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,600785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.6wins+0.52per pick34cpaid+174.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Thunder20c45,068$9,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,097.5293148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Thunder57c44,000$25,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,079.8761851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed Spurs42c43,588$18,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,272.551369.2%9 W · 4 L+4.9wins+0.38per pick31cpaid+105.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Thunder27c43,064$11,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,749.891020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-74.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xab72…0888backed Spurs43c41,201$17,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,484.823740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Spurs44c41,000$18,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,96010248%49 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Thunder56c40,000$22,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,399.984734%16 W · 31 L-6.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Spurs54c40,000$21,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,599.9635251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3561…d87cbacked Thunder52c38,580$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60cc…ff9bbacked Spurs44c36,889$16,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,657.611442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Thunder52c36,000$18,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,56018151.4%93 W · 88 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Thunder2c35,654$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.085213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Thunder46c35,148$16,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,168.2839842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd38a…8d26backed Thunder56c34,352$19,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,373.75253.8%28 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…b386backed Spurs43c34,244$14,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,5193946.2%18 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+24.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Thunder40c34,026$13,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,751.9111738.5%45 W · 72 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb13…37cdbacked Spurs61c32,710$19,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,867.131947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Spurs52c32,269$16,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,409.0528056.8%159 W · 121 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Spurs51c30,827$15,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,152.0662144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Thunder56c30,000$16,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,950.011,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Spurs47c30,000$13,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,005.4717553.7%94 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x792f…328abacked Thunder57c30,000$17,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,099.95728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Thunder18c30,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.8849244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Thunder57c29,000$16,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,529.977650%38 W · 38 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Thunder34c28,247$9,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,550.851,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xccca…3b2bbacked Spurs43c28,211$12,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,080.272330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Spurs72c28,092$20,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,002.151,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa1…e126backed Spurs43c28,000$12,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,9601369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.25per pick44cpaid+53.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Thunder57c27,202$15,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,379.591,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Spurs43c27,145$11,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,472.545848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e5…1809backed Spurs74c27,000$20,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,951.44459.1%26 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Spurs61c26,769$16,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,365.1320352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd053…3c01backed Spurs43c26,534$11,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,124.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8547…ddeebacked Spurs43c26,267$11,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,857.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+130.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab89…5949backed Spurs43c26,103$11,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,878.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+92%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c5…378abacked Thunder15c25,166$3,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,879.4115744.6%70 W · 87 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Thunder43c25,000$10,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,649.961,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Spurs42c24,841$10,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,475.7735650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x890e…db10backed Thunder27c23,996$6,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,479728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3a4…097fbacked Spurs43c23,256$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,255.811361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick39cpaid+62.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Spurs42c23,000$9,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,34038434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Thunder57c23,000$13,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,109.9323742.6%101 W · 136 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Thunder57c23,000$13,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,109.9386641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Thunder57c23,000$13,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,109.943438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Thunder57c23,000$13,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,109.8565939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Spurs66c22,393$14,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,567.761,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.