NBA · resolved market
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc29dbdf9b59a161770cbbfb39689e173b6f1fe85bc2755c5135b6b8c4808930
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 51c | 2,226$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.64 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b1…8e10backed Yes | 53c | 1,020$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.6 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked Yes | 48c | 753.83$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.54 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 54c | 370$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.5 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Yes | 48c | 335.73$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.58 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…2184backed No | 47c | 318.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.78 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Yes | 48c | 279.77$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.48 | 400 | 53.5%214 W · 186 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 50c | 258.01$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.01 | 201 | 55.7%112 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…7633backed Yes | 52c | 246.15$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Yes | 43c | 240$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3652…2c8bbacked Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804f…13abbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b7…adb1backed No | 53c | 189.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 49c | 169.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 47c | 151.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e40…1945backed No | 49c | 122.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…a4dbbacked Yes | 51c | 113.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Yes | 49c | 102.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2f…9765backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Yes | 52c | 94.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ce…7fe3backed Yes | 52c | 92.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 52c | 91.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 111 | 36%40 W · 71 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e96…a089backed Yes | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6379…04ebbacked Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed No | 48c | 60.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 199 | 59.3%118 W · 81 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 49c | 59.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked No | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…5805backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…9cfabacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9785…2c5abacked No | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed4…15d4backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed No | 47c | 24.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 405 | 46.9%190 W · 215 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed No | 50c | 23.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9d…122ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…7873backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…f767backed No | 51c | 19.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee8…ae98backed Yes | 73c | 18.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Spurs won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 7.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Luguentz Dort: Rebounds O/U 0.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. ThunderSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even ScoreEven won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: Team to Score FirstSpurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.